Lions @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F6 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

8-8 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

11-5 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

CHI -3

✓ DET W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 25–28 CHI

✗ CHI (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -1.5

CloseCHI -3

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -1.5

4.5 → CHI

CloseCHI -3

4.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -1.5 · closed CHI -3 · moved 4.5 toward CHImodel DET -2.5

model DET -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (178 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -1.5

CloseCHI -3

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 19–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 2.9; 52.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	44–22	W	O54.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Loose	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar total & season form	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Loose	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Loose	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Loose	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Loose	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Loose	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · loose	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET –WLLL	7-8	47%	3-5	1-4
CHI WLWWW	11-5	69%	5-2	5-2

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOU	10-6	63%	8-8
CHI UOUUO	9-7	56%	11-5

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 45% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%
CHI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DET 26–28 CHI CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Detroit Lions 52	DET -6.5	DET W
Dec 22 2024	Detroit Lions 34 @ Chicago Bears 17	DET -6.5	DET W
Nov 28 2024	Chicago Bears 20 @ Detroit Lions 23	DET -10	CHI W
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W
Nov 19 2023	Chicago Bears 26 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+3.0▲ 0.2#5

CHI−1.4 →+0.9▲ 2.3#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

DET

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

Even

#16

Defense

◀ DET better

#23

+0.3 #8

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.4 #1

62 plays #15

Pace

CHI faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #3	24.8 #23	DET
Yards / play	5.96 #4	6.00 #29	DET
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	+0.01 #16	DET
Success rate	45% #14	46% #24	DET

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #10	24.8 #24	CHI
Yards / play	5.72 #9	5.38 #19	CHI
EPA / play	+0.08 #7	−0.01 #12	CHI
Success rate	46% #9	42% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.2 #9	9.8 #3	15.0 #4	4.3 #20	9.2 #1	13.4 #6
CHI allowed	3.6 #4	8.3 #24	11.9 #19	5.3 #21	7.6 #23	12.8 #24

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.4 #5	5.8 #26	12.2 #11	5.8 #8	8.3 #3	14.0 #4
DET allowed	5.6 #27	6.3 #14	11.9 #19	5.3 #23	7.6 #23	12.9 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.