Lions @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Thu, Dec 25, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

8-7 · Power #6

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

7-8 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -7.5

✓ MIN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 26–18 MIN

✗ DET (76%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3.5

4 → DET

CloseDET -7.5

4 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3.5 · closed DET -7.5 · moved 4 toward DETmodel DET -11

model DET -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (50 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 34% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -3.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 7.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 7.8; 49.4 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ WSH 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	44–22	W	O48.5
Close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Close	BAL @ HOU 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	31–2	W	U47.5
Loose	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	34–28	L	O44
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & total	-7	29–18	W	O43.5
Loose	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar total	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Loose	BUF @ CLE 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-10.5	23–20	L	O41.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-9	31–17	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET L–WLL	7-7	50%	3-4	6-3
MIN LLWWW	7-8	47%	2-4	3-5

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOO	10-5	67%	8-7
MIN UUUOU	8-7	53%	7-8

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DET 18–36 MIN MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2025	Minnesota Vikings 27 @ Detroit Lions 24	DET -9.5	MIN W
Jan 5 2024	Minnesota Vikings 9 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -2.5	DET W
Oct 20 2024	Detroit Lions 31 @ Minnesota Vikings 29	MIN -1.5	DET W
Jan 7 2023	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Detroit Lions 30	DET -3.5	DET W
Dec 24 2023	Detroit Lions 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 24	DET -2.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+2.8 →+3.5▲ 0.7#5

MIN+1.0 →−0.9▼ 1.9#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DET

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ DET better

#26

#17

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.9 #31

62 plays #17

Pace

◀ DET faster

56 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #2	21.3 #11	DET
Yards / play	6.13 #2	4.89 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	−0.06 #8	Even
Success rate	46% #12	42% #8	Even

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #26	24.9 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #27	5.50 #21	DET
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	+0.01 #15	DET
Success rate	43% #23	42% #9	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.5 #8	10.0 #2	15.5 #4	4.5 #20	9.6 #1	14.1 #3
MIN allowed	4.3 #16	6.6 #15	10.9 #17	4.8 #17	5.6 #8	10.4 #12

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.7 #14	5.1 #28	9.9 #25	4.3 #22	6.1 #21	10.5 #24
DET allowed	5.5 #25	6.7 #16	12.3 #20	5.3 #22	7.4 #22	12.7 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.