Steelers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff45°F15 mphWet0.1 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

9-6 · Power #19

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-12 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

✓ CLE W

Total

34.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 20–17 CLE

✗ PIT (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -3.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total35.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -3.5

no move

ClosePIT -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open35.5

▼ 1

Close34.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -3.5 · unchangedmodel PIT -3.5 matches the line

model PIT -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (136 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPIT -3.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total35.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLE won 13–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 34.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 3.8; 42.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 8 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	SF @ CLE 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	26–8	W	U35.5
Close	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LLWWW	8-7	53%	3-4	4-3
CLE WLLLW	6-9	40%	5-2	5-7

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OUOUO	8-7	53%	9-6
CLE UUOUO	8-7	53%	3-12

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 31.5–37.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CLE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

PIT 42–14 CLE (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2025	Cleveland Browns 9 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 23	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Dec 8 2024	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 27	PIT -6.5	PIT W
Nov 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 19 @ Cleveland Browns 24	PIT -3.5	CLE W
Nov 19 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	CLE -2.5	CLE W
Sep 18 2023	Cleveland Browns 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−0.6▼ 1.1#18

CLE−2.1 →−3.6▼ 1.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PIT

Longer bar = better

CLE

#15

Offense

◀ PIT better

#32

#18

Defense

CLE better ▶

+0.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.4 #28

57 plays #29

Pace

CLE faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #11	23.7 #20	PIT
Yards / play	5.31 #18	4.71 #3	CLE
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.09 #3	CLE
Success rate	44% #16	39% #3	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #31	23.3 #17	PIT
Yards / play	4.30 #32	5.37 #17	PIT
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	+0.02 #21	PIT
Success rate	35% #32	44% #16	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.5 #17	7.9 #8	12.4 #11	4.0 #23	7.9 #6	11.9 #13
CLE allowed	5.9 #27	5.1 #5	11.1 #18	5.7 #26	6.9 #19	12.6 #24

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.9 #26	5.4 #27	9.3 #27	2.9 #28	4.3 #32	7.1 #32
PIT allowed	3.4 #5	5.5 #7	8.9 #4	4.0 #10	10.5 #32	14.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.