Ravens @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Pittsburgh Steelers · Division game

Weather at kickoff26°F0 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

8-8 · Power #14

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

9-7 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

✓ PIT W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–22 PIT

✗ BAL (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -3

1.5 → BAL

CloseBAL -4.5

1.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -3 · closed BAL -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward BALmodel BAL -2.5

model BAL -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (90 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 23% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -3

CloseBAL -4.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PIT won 26–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 41.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 4.1; 35.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	20–23	L	U44.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	26–7	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LLWLW	6-10	38%	4-3	5-8
PIT LWWWL	8-8	50%	4-3	4-4

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOUOO	10-6	63%	8-8
PIT UOUOU	8-8	50%	9-7

Went over in Q4. Of 193 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BAL 26–33 PIT PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 27 @ Baltimore Ravens 22	BAL -5.5	PIT W
Jan 11 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 14 @ Baltimore Ravens 28	BAL -9.5	BAL W
Dec 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -7.5	BAL W
Nov 17 2024	Baltimore Ravens 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	BAL -3.5	PIT W
Jan 6 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	PIT -3	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.6 →+1.4▼ 2.2#14

PIT+0.5 →−0.6▼ 1.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

BAL

Longer bar = better

PIT

#12

Offense

◀ BAL better

#16

#19

Defense

Even

#17

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.7 #4

58 plays #28

Pace

Even

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #11	22.7 #17	BAL
Yards / play	5.71 #8	5.37 #18	BAL
EPA / play	+0.03 #14	+0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	45% #13	44% #14	Even

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #15	23.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #17	5.55 #21	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	44% #17	44% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.9 #25	6.9 #18	10.8 #22	6.8 #4	7.4 #10	14.2 #3
PIT allowed	3.8 #9	5.1 #6	8.9 #5	3.8 #9	10.0 #32	13.8 #28

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.2 #23	7.8 #8	12.0 #12	3.8 #25	7.4 #9	11.2 #16
BAL allowed	3.8 #7	7.2 #18	10.9 #16	5.9 #26	6.4 #18	12.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.