Texans @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff31°F9 mphgusts 19DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

12-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-7 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

HOU -3

✓ HOU W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 22–19 PIT

✓ HOU (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -3

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

0.5 → HOU

CloseHOU -3

0.5 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Close38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · closed HOU -3 · moved 0.5 toward HOUmodel HOU -4

model HOU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (129 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseHOU -3

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3-point road favorite at PIT, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 30–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 38.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 2.7; 46.1 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Close	BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	26–7	W	U44.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	LAC @ DEN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-2.5	23–16	W	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWLWL	9-8	53%	4-4	5-5
PIT WWWLW	9-8	53%	5-3	5-4

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; PIT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOOUO	6-11	35%	12-5
PIT OUOUO	9-8	53%	10-7

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 55% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 4–5 PIT PIT leads · 9 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 6 @ Houston Texans 30	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+4.5▲ 3.9#3

PIT+0.5 →−0.5▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

HOU

Longer bar = better

PIT

#21

Offense

PIT better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ HOU better

#17

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #3

64 plays #6

Pace

◀ HOU faster

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #13	22.8 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.11 #23	5.46 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #21	+0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	41% #28	43% #13	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	PIT off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	17.4 #2	HOU
Yards / play	5.26 #18	4.78 #5	HOU
EPA / play	+0.03 #15	−0.13 #1	HOU
Success rate	44% #17	38% #2	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.8 #12	7.5 #10	12.3 #10	3.4 #26	8.1 #5	11.5 #15
PIT allowed	4.0 #11	5.0 #4	9.0 #5	3.5 #7	10.2 #32	13.8 #28

PIT scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.9 #25	7.5 #9	11.5 #16	4.1 #22	7.8 #7	11.9 #13
HOU allowed	3.5 #3	4.6 #2	8.1 #2	5.8 #24	3.5 #2	9.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.