Chargers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Sun, Jan 11, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff35°F13 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

11-6 · Power #15

final

Final

New England Patriots

14-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 19–22 NE

✓ NE (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -3.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -3.5

no move

CloseNE -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -3.5 · unchangedmodel NE -3.5 matches the line

model NE -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 51% (206 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -3.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 3.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 16–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 3.5; 43.5 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWLL	9-8	53%	3-5	4-1
NE WLWWW	12-5	71%	5-4	8-3

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	7-10	41%	11-6
NE OOOOO	11-6	65%	14-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAC 5–12 NE NE leads · 17 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 40 @ New England Patriots 7	LAC -5.5	LAC W
Dec 3 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 6 @ New England Patriots 0	LAC -4.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+1.6▲ 1.1#12

NE−2.3 →+3.2▲ 5.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

LAC

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

NE better ▶

Defense

◀ LAC better

#11

+0.1 #12

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #10

64 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAC faster

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	LAC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #20	18.8 #4	NE
Yards / play	5.18 #20	5.16 #12	NE
EPA / play	−0.02 #25	−0.05 #11	NE
Success rate	43% #19	45% #18	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #2	20.0 #8	NE
Yards / play	6.18 #1	5.02 #9	NE
EPA / play	+0.16 #1	−0.08 #7	NE
Success rate	48% #3	41% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	4.8 #12	6.1 #25	10.9 #20	5.2 #11	5.4 #26	10.6 #21
NE allowed	4.4 #16	5.1 #6	9.5 #7	3.4 #6	6.0 #10	9.4 #6

NE scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	7.2 #1	10.2 #2	17.4 #1	6.1 #7	5.3 #27	11.4 #16
LAC allowed	5.2 #22	5.5 #9	10.7 #15	4.2 #14	5.1 #4	9.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.