Rams @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Sat, Jan 10, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff71°F15 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

12-5 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

8-9 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

LAR -10

✓ CAR W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 26–16 CAR

✓ LAR (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -10

CloseLAR -10

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -10

no move

CloseLAR -10

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -10 · unchangedmodel LAR -11

model LAR -11

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -10

CloseLAR -10

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 10-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 44.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 9; 45.4 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10	28–31	L	O44.5
Very close	BUF @ CLE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	23–20	L	O41.5
Close	GB @ NYG 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	SEA @ TEN 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-11.5	30–24	L	O41.5
Close	LAR @ ATL 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	24–27	L	O48.5
Loose	GB @ CLE 2025 · Week 3 · loose	-7.5	10–13	L	U40.5
Loose	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Loose	DEN @ LV 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-8.5	24–17	L	O40.5
Loose	SEA @ ATL 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	37–9	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWWLW	12-5	71%	5-3	11-4
CAR WLWLW	10-7	59%	5-3	10-5

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOOOO	10-7	59%	12-5
CAR OUUUU	7-10	41%	8-9

Went over in Q4. Of 234 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
CAR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 8–9 CAR CAR leads · 17 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2025	Los Angeles Rams 28 @ Carolina Panthers 31	LAR -10	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+6.1▲ 5.9#1

CAR−3.5 →−3.2▲ 0.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

LAR

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

◀ LAR better

#25

#11

Defense

◀ LAR better

#19

+0.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−0.1 #15

64 plays #7

Pace

◀ LAR faster

59 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #1	22.4 #15	LAR
Yards / play	6.18 #1	5.48 #20	LAR
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	+0.07 #23	LAR
Success rate	52% #1	44% #16	LAR

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	CAR off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #27	20.4 #10	LAR
Yards / play	4.97 #26	5.19 #14	LAR
EPA / play	−0.04 #26	−0.06 #9	LAR
Success rate	43% #21	42% #11	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.6 #2	8.5 #5	15.1 #3	7.3 #1	7.6 #10	14.9 #2
CAR allowed	4.3 #15	8.9 #28	13.2 #24	4.3 #14	4.8 #4	9.1 #4

CAR scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.7 #26	4.2 #29	7.9 #30	4.2 #20	6.0 #21	10.2 #24
LAR allowed	4.2 #13	6.2 #14	10.4 #13	3.6 #8	5.7 #10	9.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.