Packers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Sat, Jan 10, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff32°F11 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

9-7-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Chicago Bears

11-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -1.5

✓ CHI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 23–22 CHI

✗ GB (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -1.5

no move

CloseGB -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -1.5 · unchangedmodel GB -1.5 matches the line

model GB -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 56% (100 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -1.5

CloseGB -1.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 1.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 31–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 2.1; 42.4 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5
Very close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Very close	PHI @ LAC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	19–22	L	U41.5
Very close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Close	SEA @ SF 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–3	W	U48.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLLLW	6-10	38%	2-6	5-9
CHI LWWWL	11-6	65%	5-3	6-3

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OOUOU	9-8	53%	9-7-1
CHI OUUOU	9-8	53%	11-6

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%
CHI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

GB 41–16 CHI GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 20 2025	Green Bay Packers 16 @ Chicago Bears 22	CHI -1.5	CHI W
Dec 7 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Green Bay Packers 28	GB -6.5	GB W
Jan 5 2024	Chicago Bears 24 @ Green Bay Packers 22	GB -10.5	CHI W
Nov 17 2024	Green Bay Packers 20 @ Chicago Bears 19	GB -6.5	CHI W
Jan 7 2023	Chicago Bears 9 @ Green Bay Packers 17	GB -2.5	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+1.8▼ 0.4#11

CHI−1.4 →+0.7▲ 2.1#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

Even

#15

Defense

◀ GB better

#24

+0.1 #12

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.3 #1

59 plays #23

Pace

CHI faster ▶

65 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #16	24.4 #23	GB
Yards / play	5.60 #10	6.00 #29	GB
EPA / play	+0.11 #4	+0.02 #19	GB
Success rate	48% #5	47% #25	GB

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #9	21.2 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #9	5.00 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.03 #22	CHI
Success rate	46% #9	45% #19	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.0 #29	6.8 #18	9.8 #26	5.2 #12	7.8 #7	13.1 #6
CHI allowed	3.6 #6	8.4 #26	12.0 #20	5.1 #22	7.3 #22	12.4 #23

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.0 #6	5.5 #26	11.5 #16	5.4 #11	8.7 #3	14.1 #4
GB allowed	1.5 #1	7.2 #18	8.7 #4	4.1 #10	7.8 #25	11.9 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.