Rams @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Divisional Playoffs, 2025)

Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ESTNFC Divisional Playoffs · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff17°F9 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

13-5 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

12-6 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ CHI W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 27–23 CHI

✓ LAR (63%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -4.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -4.5

1 → CHI

CloseLAR -3.5

1 pt toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -4.5 · closed LAR -3.5 · moved 1 toward CHImodel LAR -6

model LAR -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (144 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -4.5

CloseLAR -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 3.3; 54.9 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ SF 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	40–34	W	O50.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Very close	BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	26–7	W	U44.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	BUF @ ATL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	14–24	L	U49.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–24	L	U48.5
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWLWL	12-6	67%	5-4	11-5
CHI WWWLW	12-6	67%	6-3	7-3

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOOOO	11-7	61%	13-5
CHI UUOUO	10-8	56%	12-6

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
CHI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 8–7 CHI LAR leads · 15 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Los Angeles Rams 18 @ Chicago Bears 24	CHI -3.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+6.1▲ 5.9#1

CHI−1.4 →+0.6▲ 2.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

LAR

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ LAR better

#11

Defense

◀ LAR better

#25

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.1 #1

64 plays #4

Pace

Even

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #1	24.6 #23	LAR
Yards / play	6.15 #2	6.00 #29	LAR
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	+0.03 #21	LAR
Success rate	52% #1	47% #25	LAR

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #9	20.9 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #9	5.19 #14	CHI
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.06 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #11	42% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.7 #3	8.6 #5	15.2 #3	7.1 #2	8.0 #6	15.1 #2
CHI allowed	3.8 #6	8.7 #26	12.5 #20	4.8 #19	7.2 #21	12.1 #18

CHI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	5.8 #6	5.2 #27	11.0 #19	5.3 #10	9.6 #1	14.9 #3
LAR allowed	3.9 #10	6.7 #15	10.6 #15	3.6 #8	6.2 #12	9.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.