Texans @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2025)

Sun, Jan 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff33°F4 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

13-5 · Power #3

final

Final

New England Patriots

15-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -3

✓ NE W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 20–23 NE

✓ NE (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -3

CloseNE -3

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -3

no move

CloseNE -3

No change since the open

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -3 · unchangedmodel NE -1

model NE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (181 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -3

CloseNE -3

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 3-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 28–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.6; 38.9 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs HOU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	16–20	L	U43.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	10–20	L	U41.5
Very close	NE vs LAC 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	16–3	W	U45.5
Close	SEA vs HOU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	27–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWLW	10-8	56%	5-4	4-3
NE LWWWW	13-5	72%	6-4	9-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOUOU	6-12	33%	13-5
NE OOOOU	11-7	61%	15-3

Went over in Q4. Of 170 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 4–12 NE NE leads · 16 games since 2003 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Houston Texans 41 @ New England Patriots 21	HOU -6.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+5.1▲ 4.5#3

NE−2.3 →+3.6▲ 5.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

HOU

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

NE better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#11

+0.9 #2

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.1 #12

64 plays #6

Pace

◀ HOU faster

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	HOU off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #13	17.9 #3	NE
Yards / play	5.17 #20	5.06 #11	NE
EPA / play	−0.01 #19	−0.06 #11	NE
Success rate	42% #28	44% #17	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #5	16.7 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.16 #1	4.70 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	−0.15 #1	Even
Success rate	48% #4	38% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.6 #16	7.4 #9	12.0 #11	3.2 #26	8.9 #3	12.1 #11
NE allowed	4.1 #13	5.0 #4	9.1 #6	3.2 #6	5.7 #10	8.8 #3

NE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.8 #2	10.0 #2	16.8 #1	5.9 #7	5.4 #26	11.3 #15
HOU allowed	3.5 #3	4.5 #2	8.0 #2	5.4 #24	3.3 #1	8.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.