Patriots @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Championship, 2025)

Sun, Jan 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTAFC Championship · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff24°F3 mphgusts 9DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

16-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Denver Broncos

15-3 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

NE -3.5

✓ DEN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 22–19 DEN

✓ NE (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -4.5

1 → DEN

CloseNE -3.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open41.5

▲ 2

Close43.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -4.5 · closed NE -3.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel NE -6.5

model NE -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (145 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -4.5

CloseNE -3.5

Total41.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 3.5-point road favorite at DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 10–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 2.7; 49.2 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	MIN @ SEA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–24	W	O43.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	19–22	L	U45.5
Close	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Close	KC @ PIT 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	29–10	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWWWW	14-5	74%	7-1	10-3
DEN WLLWW	8-10	44%	6-4	4-1

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; DEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OOOUO	12-7	63%	16-3
DEN OOUUO	8-10	44%	15-3

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
DEN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 13–10 DEN NE leads · 23 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 24 2023	New England Patriots 26 @ Denver Broncos 23	DEN -7	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →+3.8▲ 6.1#5

DEN+0.4 →+2.6▲ 2.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ NE better

#14

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.2 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #13

62 plays #17

Pace

DEN faster ▶

64 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #5	18.9 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #2	4.55 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.08 #8	NE
Success rate	47% #5	38% #2	Even

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	DEN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #13	17.8 #3	NE
Yards / play	5.32 #15	4.95 #7	NE
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	44% #16	44% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.8 #2	10.2 #2	17.0 #1	5.6 #8	5.5 #26	11.1 #16
DEN allowed	3.9 #10	5.7 #10	9.6 #9	4.6 #18	4.4 #3	9.0 #5

DEN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.2 #22	7.2 #12	11.4 #16	4.4 #19	7.7 #9	12.1 #11
NE allowed	4.1 #13	5.1 #4	9.2 #6	3.3 #6	5.4 #7	8.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

At kickoff

Home field

DEN +1.8

home-field points in the model

Weather

24° · 3 mph

gusts 9 mph · at kickoff

Rest

NE7d

DEN8d

DEN +1 day

Tempo

Average 126 plays

slowavg 123fast

Travel

NE 1,758 mi

2 time zones

Quarterback

DEN backup QB started

Model priced DEN with its QB out

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

New England Patriots← vs HOU · vs SEA →

Denver Broncos← vs BUF

AFC West · AFC East · NFL power ratings · 1st-half lines & halftime results

ESPN box score ↗

Other Conference Championship gamesSame-conference games first

Other Conference Championship gamesSame-conference games firstAll 2 ›

LAR @

SEA27-31

All 2 Conference Championship games ›

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Market

Similar games

Signals

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

Matchup stats

Points by quarter and half

Game conditions

Schedules, links & other games