Sun, Feb 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ESTSuper Bowl LX · Neutral site
Closing spread
SEA -4.5
✓ SEA W
Total
45.5
▼ Under · 42 pts
Model before kickoff
SEA 24–20 NE
✓ SEA (65%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -3.5
CloseSEA -4.5
Total46.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSEA -3.5
1 → SEA
CloseSEA -4.5
1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks
Total
Open46.5
▼ 1
Close45.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -4.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SEA -1
model SEA -1
Opened 46.5 · closed 45.5 · moved 1 downmodel 43.5
model 43.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSEA -3.5
CloseSEA -4.5
Total46.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 3 games most like 
SEA as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite against NE, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.
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This game: SEA won 29–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 42 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 3.
Favorite won
2 of 367%
Normal range · usually 65%
Favorite covered
2 of 367%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
1 of 333%
Normal range · usually 46%
Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 2.5; 48 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 3 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation |
-1.5 | 22–40 | L | O48.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 35–7 | W | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 5 · loose |
-2.5 | 23–17 | W | U42.5 |
KC
PHI
LAR
JAX
MIN
NYJHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate Seattle Seahawks ATS trend Hit
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Seattle Seahawks ATS trend (14-5)
Seattle Seahawks have covered 74% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)
Seattle Seahawks 12-4 ATS as a favorite
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
New England Patriots ATS trend (14-6)
New England Patriots have covered 70% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)
Market moved toward Seattle Seahawks
1 pt (SEA -3.5 → SEA -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 30. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
 NE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
SEA 6–3 NE
SEA leads · 9 games since 2004 · SEA has won the last 5 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15 2024 | Seattle Seahawks 23 @ New England Patriots 20 | SEA -3.5 | NE W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SEA−0.1 →+6.1▲ 6.2#1
NE−2.3 →+3.9▲ 6.2#5
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotCONF
SEALonger bar = better
NE#6
Offense
Even#6
#3
Defense
◀ SEA better#7
+0.1 #13
Turnovers
NE better ▶+0.3 #8
60 plays #24
Pace
NE faster ▶62 plays #17
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SEA has the ball| SEA off | NE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.2 #2 | 17.3 #2 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.87 #6 | 4.86 #7 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.05 #10 | −0.09 #5 | NE |
| Success rate | 47% #5 | 43% #13 | SEA |
When NE has the ball| NE off | SEA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 27.2 #8 | 17.1 #1 | SEA |
| Yards / play | 5.89 #4 | 4.71 #4 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.11 #4 | −0.11 #2 | Even |
| Success rate | 47% #7 | 40% #3 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
SEA scoring against the NE defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA scored | 7.0 #1 | 7.9 #7 | 14.9 #3 | 7.6 #1 | 6.3 #19 | 13.9 #5 |
| NE allowed | 4.2 #14 | 4.8 #3 | 9.1 #6 | 3.1 #5 | 5.1 #4 | 8.3 #2 |
NE scoring against the SEA defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE scored | 6.5 #3 | 10.1 #2 | 16.5 #1 | 5.5 #8 | 5.2 #27 | 10.7 #20 |
| SEA allowed | 2.8 #2 | 4.7 #1 | 7.5 #1 | 3.7 #8 | 5.5 #8 | 9.2 #6 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
67° · 7 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SEA14d bye
NE14d bye
Even
Tempo
Average 121 plays
slowavg 123fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week