Rams @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Championship, 2025)

Sun, Jan 25, 2026, 6:30 PM ESTNFC Championship · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

14-5 · Power #2

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

15-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

✓ SEA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 23–25 SEA

✓ SEA (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -1.5

1 → SEA

CloseSEA -2.5

1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -1.5 · closed SEA -2.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SEA -1

model SEA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (208 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (121 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 2.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3; 41.7 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Close	DEN vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	33–30	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Close	NE vs HOU 2025 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-3	28–16	W	O40.5
Close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Close	IND vs HOU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–20	L	U43.5
Close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLWLL	12-7	63%	5-5	1-1
SEA LLWWW	13-5	72%	5-4	11-4

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOOOU	11-8	58%	14-5
SEA UOUUO	10-8	56%	15-3

Went over in Q3. Of 225 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
SEA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAR 24–28 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 18 2025	Los Angeles Rams 37 @ Seattle Seahawks 38	SEA -1.5	LAR W
Nov 16 2025	Seattle Seahawks 19 @ Los Angeles Rams 21	LAR -3.5	SEA W
Jan 5 2024	Seattle Seahawks 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 25	SEA -7.5	LAR W
Nov 3 2024	Los Angeles Rams 26 @ Seattle Seahawks 20	LAR -2	LAR W
Nov 19 2023	Seattle Seahawks 16 @ Los Angeles Rams 17	LAR -2	SEA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+6.0▲ 5.8#2

SEA−0.1 →+6.1▲ 6.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotDIV

LAR

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ LAR better

#11

Defense

SEA better ▶

+0.8 #2

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

0.0 #14

65 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #1	16.6 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #1	4.53 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	−0.13 #2	Even
Success rate	51% #1	39% #3	Even

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #2	20.7 #10	SEA
Yards / play	5.86 #6	5.19 #14	SEA
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	−0.06 #10	Even
Success rate	47% #6	42% #11	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.7 #2	8.3 #6	14.9 #3	6.7 #3	7.9 #6	14.6 #2
SEA allowed	2.8 #2	4.4 #1	7.2 #1	3.1 #5	5.8 #11	8.9 #5

SEA scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.8 #1	7.9 #7	14.8 #5	7.3 #1	6.6 #16	13.9 #5
LAR allowed	3.7 #6	6.8 #16	10.6 #15	3.4 #8	6.2 #12	9.6 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.