49ers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Divisional Playoffs, 2025)

Sat, Jan 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTNFC Divisional Playoffs · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Weather at kickoff45°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

13-5 · Power #10

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

14-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -7

✓ SEA W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 20–26 SEA

✓ SEA (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -7

CloseSEA -7

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -7

no move

CloseSEA -7

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -7 · unchangedmodel SEA -3.5

model SEA -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (101 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -7

CloseSEA -7

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 7-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 41–6; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 6.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	28–21	W	O44.5
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	55–23	W	O47.5
Very close	SEA vs ARI 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	44–22	W	O44.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	13–16	L	U41.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWLLW	11-7	61%	8-2	3-4
SEA WLLWW	12-5	71%	4-4	10-4

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOOUU	10-8	56%	13-5
SEA OUOUU	9-8	53%	14-3

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SEA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SF 21–31 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 3 2025	Seattle Seahawks 13 @ San Francisco 49ers 3	SEA -2.5	SEA W
Sep 7 2025	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -1.5	SF W
Nov 17 2024	Seattle Seahawks 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 17	SF -6.5	SEA W
Oct 10 2024	San Francisco 49ers 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 24	SF -3.5	SF W
Dec 10 2023	Seattle Seahawks 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 28	SF -14	SEA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+2.4▲ 1.5#9

SEA−0.1 →+5.6▲ 5.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

SEA better ▶

−0.4 #28

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

−0.2 #22

63 plays #10

Pace

◀ SF faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	17.2 #2	SEA
Yards / play	5.56 #11	4.56 #2	SEA
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	−0.12 #2	Even
Success rate	48% #3	40% #3	Even

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #2	21.7 #11	SEA
Yards / play	5.88 #5	5.54 #22	SEA
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	+0.06 #23	SEA
Success rate	46% #7	48% #29	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.7 #7	7.4 #9	13.1 #8	5.2 #12	7.1 #12	12.3 #11
SEA allowed	3.0 #2	4.3 #1	7.3 #1	3.3 #6	6.2 #13	9.5 #7

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #7	14.2 #7	7.1 #1	6.6 #16	13.7 #5
SF allowed	4.2 #15	7.1 #18	11.3 #18	4.2 #13	6.2 #11	10.4 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.