Seahawks @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sat, Jan 3, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

13-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

12-4 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

✓ SEA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 16 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 25–22 SF

✓ SEA (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -1.5

1 → SEA

CloseSEA -2.5

1 pt toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -1.5 · closed SEA -2.5 · moved 1 toward SEAmodel SF -1

model SF -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 53% (154 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -1.5

CloseSEA -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 2.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 13–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 16 points stayed under 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3; 57.9 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	DET @ SF 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	40–34	W	O50.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	BUF @ NE 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O49.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WWLLW	11-5	69%	7-1	9-4
SF WWWWL	10-6	63%	3-4	2-3

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOUOU	9-7	56%	13-3
SF UUOOO	10-6	63%	12-4

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SEA 31–21 SF SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -1.5	SF W
Nov 17 2024	Seattle Seahawks 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 17	SF -6.5	SEA W
Oct 10 2024	San Francisco 49ers 36 @ Seattle Seahawks 24	SF -3.5	SF W
Dec 10 2023	Seattle Seahawks 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 28	SF -14	SEA W
Nov 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 31 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -7	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.1 →+5.1▲ 5.2#2

SF+0.9 →+2.6▲ 1.7#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

SEA

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ SEA better

#23

−0.3 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #25

59 plays #26

Pace

SF faster ▶

65 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #2	22.4 #14	SEA
Yards / play	5.92 #5	5.64 #24	SEA
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	+0.07 #24	SEA
Success rate	46% #8	48% #30	SEA

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #8	18.1 #2	SEA
Yards / play	5.58 #11	4.58 #2	SEA
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	−0.11 #2	Even
Success rate	49% #2	40% #4	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.2 #5	8.3 #5	14.5 #6	7.6 #1	6.8 #14	14.4 #3
SF allowed	3.9 #8	7.4 #19	11.3 #18	4.6 #17	6.6 #17	11.1 #14

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.9 #7	8.0 #8	13.9 #7	5.8 #8	7.2 #12	13.0 #9
SEA allowed	3.2 #3	4.4 #1	7.6 #1	3.5 #6	6.6 #17	10.1 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.