Titans @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff55°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-13 · Power #31

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

12-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -13.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 15–28 JAX

✓ JAX (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -10

CloseJAX -13.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -10

3.5 → JAX

CloseJAX -13.5

3.5 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -10 · closed JAX -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward JAXmodel JAX -12.5

model JAX -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -10

CloseJAX -13.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 13.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 13.9; 41.3 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Very close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Close	LAR vs NO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	DET vs NYG 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	34–27	L	O50.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs LV 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	23–21	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LWLWL	7-9	44%	3-4	7-9
JAX WWWWW	11-5	69%	6-1	6-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOUO	10-6	63%	3-13
JAX UOOOU	9-7	56%	12-4

Went over in Q4. Of 202 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
JAX	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TEN 32–23 JAX TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 25 @ Tennessee Titans 3	JAX -6	JAX W
Dec 29 2024	Tennessee Titans 13 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	TEN -1.5	JAX W
Dec 8 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Tennessee Titans 6	TEN -3.5	JAX W
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W
Nov 19 2023	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−6.0▼ 4.2#30

JAX−2.1 →+2.4▲ 4.5#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

TEN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#31

Offense

JAX better ▶

#16

#26

Defense

JAX better ▶

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #3

59 plays #24

Pace

JAX faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #30	20.6 #9	JAX
Yards / play	4.44 #31	5.05 #9	JAX
EPA / play	−0.15 #30	−0.09 #4	JAX
Success rate	38% #31	42% #9	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #9	27.3 #28	JAX
Yards / play	5.23 #21	5.83 #28	JAX
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	+0.09 #27	JAX
Success rate	44% #17	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	4.1 #23	4.3 #29	8.3 #29	3.1 #27	5.9 #23	9.0 #28
JAX allowed	4.0 #10	5.3 #7	9.3 #6	3.3 #5	7.6 #25	10.9 #14

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.6 #8	8.3 #5	13.9 #7	6.3 #5	6.3 #18	12.6 #9
TEN allowed	5.4 #25	8.0 #23	13.4 #24	7.5 #32	6.4 #14	13.9 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.