Chargers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

11-5 · Power #15

final

Final

Denver Broncos

13-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -15.5

✓ DEN W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 14–28 DEN

✓ DEN (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -10

CloseDEN -15.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -10

5.5 → DEN

CloseDEN -15.5

5.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open38.5

▼ 1

Close37.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -10 · closed DEN -15.5 · moved 5.5 toward DENmodel DEN -2.5

model DEN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -10

CloseDEN -15.5

Total38.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like DEN as a 15.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 19–3; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 22 points stayed under 37.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 39%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 38 against an average line of 11.5; 38 points a game (usually 44.9). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DEN vs KC 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-11.5	38–0	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWWL	9-7	56%	3-4	4-0
DEN LLWLL	6-10	38%	4-4	2-9

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOU	7-9	44%	11-5
DEN OOOOU	7-9	44%	13-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
DEN	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAC 23–33 DEN DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2025	Denver Broncos 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 23	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 19 2024	Denver Broncos 27 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Oct 13 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 23 @ Denver Broncos 16	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 31 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 9 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	DEN W
Dec 10 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 7	LAC -3	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.5 →+1.9▲ 1.4#12

DEN+0.4 →+2.3▲ 1.9#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

LAC

Longer bar = better

DEN

#18

Offense

DEN better ▶

#13

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.3 #26

64 plays #6

Pace

Even

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #17	19.3 #4	DEN
Yards / play	5.32 #16	4.55 #1	DEN
EPA / play	0.00 #20	−0.07 #8	DEN
Success rate	44% #18	37% #1	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #14	20.1 #7	LAC
Yards / play	5.40 #15	5.08 #10	LAC
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	45% #13	42% #8	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #10	6.3 #25	11.4 #18	5.5 #10	5.8 #24	11.3 #15
DEN allowed	4.0 #11	6.0 #10	10.0 #10	4.7 #18	4.2 #3	8.9 #3

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.9 #24	7.1 #16	11.0 #21	4.6 #17	7.8 #7	12.4 #9
LAC allowed	4.9 #21	5.9 #9	10.8 #14	4.3 #14	5.0 #5	9.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.