Saints @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

6-10 · Power #23

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

7-9 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

✓ NO W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 20–23 ATL

✓ ATL (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -3

0.5 → ATL

CloseATL -3.5

0.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -3 · closed ATL -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward ATLmodel ATL -3.5 matches the line

model ATL -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (203 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 24% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenATL -3

CloseATL -3.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 3.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 3.8; 50.5 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO –WWWW	7-8	47%	4-3	4-7
ATL LLWWW	8-8	50%	3-4	2-6

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOUUO	5-11	31%	6-10
ATL OOOUO	9-7	56%	7-9

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	2-8 20%
ATL	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NO 32–23 ATL NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2025	Atlanta Falcons 24 @ New Orleans Saints 10	NO -1.5	ATL W
Nov 10 2024	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	ATL -4.5	NO W
Sep 29 2024	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 26	ATL -2.5	NO W
Jan 7 2023	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 48	NO -3	NO W
Nov 26 2023	New Orleans Saints 15 @ Atlanta Falcons 24	NO -2	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.6 →−2.6▼ 1.0#25

ATL−0.4 →−1.1▼ 0.7#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

ATL

#27

Offense

ATL better ▶

#19

#11

Defense

◀ NO better

#18

−0.2 #21

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

+0.3 #9

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ NO faster

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #29	24.0 #20	ATL
Yards / play	4.94 #27	5.28 #14	ATL
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	0.00 #14	ATL
Success rate	42% #24	45% #22	Even

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #24	22.8 #17	NO
Yards / play	5.52 #13	4.93 #6	NO
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	−0.05 #10	NO
Success rate	44% #16	42% #11	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.8 #32	6.6 #21	8.4 #28	3.8 #23	5.8 #24	9.6 #27
ATL allowed	4.3 #16	5.9 #10	10.2 #11	6.3 #28	7.0 #20	13.3 #26

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.6 #16	7.4 #11	12.0 #12	2.9 #28	6.0 #21	8.9 #29
NO allowed	7.2 #31	8.6 #27	15.8 #30	3.7 #8	3.3 #1	6.9 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.