Rams @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

11-4 · Power #2

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

6-9 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -7.5

✓ ATL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 28–20 ATL

✗ LAR (76%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -8.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -8.5

1 → ATL

CloseLAR -7.5

1 pt toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -8.5 · closed LAR -7.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel LAR -9

model LAR -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 43% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -8.5

CloseLAR -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 7.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 7.2; 47 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ CHI 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	34–17	W	O47.5
Very close	DET @ IND 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	24–6	W	U49.5
Very close	SEA @ ATL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	37–9	W	O44.5
Very close	BUF @ CAR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	40–9	W	O48.5
Close	BUF @ MIA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	13–30	L	U50.5
Close	WSH @ NO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–19	L	U44.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	28–31	L	O44.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLWWW	11-4	73%	5-2	10-3
ATL WLLWW	7-8	47%	2-4	5-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOO	8-7	53%	11-4
ATL UOOOU	8-7	53%	6-9

Went over in Q4. Of 144 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
ATL	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 10–8 ATL LAR leads · 18 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.2 →+6.3▲ 6.1#1

ATL−0.4 →−1.3▼ 0.9#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LAR

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ LAR better

#20

Defense

◀ LAR better

#18

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

+0.1 #10

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LAR faster

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #1	24.0 #20	LAR
Yards / play	6.24 #1	5.24 #13	LAR
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	+0.01 #16	LAR
Success rate	52% #1	45% #22	LAR

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	ATL off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #26	19.9 #7	LAR
Yards / play	5.47 #14	5.08 #11	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #24	−0.08 #8	LAR
Success rate	44% #16	42% #10	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	7.3 #1	8.7 #4	16.1 #3	6.7 #4	7.3 #11	13.9 #5
ATL allowed	4.5 #18	6.3 #14	10.9 #15	5.5 #25	7.0 #20	12.5 #24

ATL scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.5 #17	6.9 #18	11.4 #17	2.9 #28	6.2 #20	9.1 #28
LAR allowed	4.1 #15	5.9 #10	10.0 #10	2.9 #2	6.3 #11	9.2 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.