Buccaneers @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff78°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-8 · Power #18

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

6-9 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -5.5

✓ MIA W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 26–21 MIA

✗ TB (68%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseTB -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -3

2.5 → TB

CloseTB -5.5

2.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -3 · closed TB -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward TBmodel TB -1

model TB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 54% (65 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 27% (22 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseTB -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 5.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 5.1; 39.1 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	20–23	L	U44.5
Very close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-7	29–18	W	O43.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLLL	5-10	33%	4-4	2-6
MIA W–WLL	7-7	50%	3-3	4-5

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUOOU	8-7	53%	7-8
MIA UUOUO	9-6	60%	6-9

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
MIA	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 5–2 MIA TB leads · 7 games since 2000 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →−0.2▼ 1.4#17

MIA0.0 →−3.0▼ 3.0#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

MIA

#23

Offense

MIA better ▶

#20

#22

Defense

Even

#25

+0.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.3 #26

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ TB faster

56 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #17	24.6 #22	TB
Yards / play	5.04 #26	5.63 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #22	+0.08 #25	Even
Success rate	42% #26	48% #26	Even

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #22	25.1 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #12	5.73 #27	MIA
EPA / play	0.00 #19	+0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	42% #25	45% #20	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.6 #27	7.9 #8	11.5 #15	6.8 #4	4.8 #31	11.6 #15
MIA allowed	3.7 #7	5.8 #8	9.5 #7	7.5 #32	7.6 #23	15.1 #31

MIA scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.0 #12	6.7 #19	11.7 #12	1.8 #32	7.4 #10	9.2 #27
TB allowed	5.5 #24	7.4 #19	12.9 #21	5.0 #20	7.3 #21	12.3 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.