Buccaneers @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-7 · Power #18

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

7-7 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -3

✓ CAR W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 23–20 CAR

✗ TB (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

CloseTB -3

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -1.5

1.5 → TB

CloseTB -3

1.5 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -1.5 · closed TB -3 · moved 1.5 toward TBmodel TB -2

model TB -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (119 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (110 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTB -1.5

CloseTB -3

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 3.1; 36.7 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLLL	5-9	36%	4-3	2-5
CAR LWLWL	8-6	57%	4-2	8-4

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUOO	8-6	57%	7-7
CAR UOUOU	7-7	50%	7-7

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
CAR	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

TB 23–25 CAR CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 29 2024	Carolina Panthers 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48	TB -9.5	TB W
Dec 1 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ Carolina Panthers 23	TB -6.5	CAR W
Jan 7 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Carolina Panthers 0	TB -4.5	TB W
Dec 3 2023	Carolina Panthers 18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21	TB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+1.2 →−0.2▼ 1.4#17

CAR−3.5 →−3.1▲ 0.4#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

CAR

#24

Offense

Even

#25

#22

Defense

Even

#21

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.1 #15

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ TB faster

61 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #16	22.6 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #26	5.64 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #24	+0.08 #26	Even
Success rate	42% #28	45% #18	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #28	25.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #25	5.78 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #25	0.00 #17	TB
Success rate	43% #21	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.4 #28	8.3 #7	11.6 #12	6.8 #4	4.9 #29	11.7 #16
CAR allowed	3.8 #8	10.4 #32	14.2 #26	3.7 #8	4.7 #4	8.4 #3

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	4.3 #18	3.7 #30	8.0 #29	4.6 #19	6.1 #22	10.6 #21
TB allowed	5.6 #24	7.2 #19	12.9 #21	4.9 #19	7.6 #23	12.4 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.