Packers @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sat, Dec 20, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff36°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

9-4-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Chicago Bears

10-4 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

✓ CHI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 21–22 CHI

✓ CHI (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3

4.5 → CHI

CloseCHI -1.5

4.5 pts toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3 · closed CHI -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward CHImodel GB -3

model GB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (105 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 24% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGB -3

CloseCHI -1.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 1.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 22–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.3; 41.3 points a game (usually 43.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	16–15	L	U43.5
Loose	DEN vs SF 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	11–10	P	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Loose	LV vs NE 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2	30–24	W	O45.5
Loose	ATL vs WSH 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-2.5	34–27	W	O44.5
Loose	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Loose	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LW–WL	5-8	38%	1-5	—
CHI WWWLW	9-5	64%	4-2	4-2

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUOOO	8-6	57%	9-4-1
CHI UOUOU	8-6	57%	10-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	7-3 70%
CHI	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

GB 41–16 CHI GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Green Bay Packers 28	GB -6.5	GB W
Jan 5 2024	Chicago Bears 24 @ Green Bay Packers 22	GB -10.5	CHI W
Nov 17 2024	Green Bay Packers 20 @ Chicago Bears 19	GB -6.5	CHI W
Jan 7 2023	Chicago Bears 9 @ Green Bay Packers 17	GB -2.5	GB W
Sep 10 2023	Green Bay Packers 38 @ Chicago Bears 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+2.2 →+3.2▲ 1.0#7

CHI−1.4 →+0.5▲ 1.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ GB better

#11

Defense

◀ GB better

#21

+0.2 #9

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.4 #1

60 plays #21

Pace

CHI faster ▶

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #10	24.1 #21	GB
Yards / play	5.66 #9	5.93 #28	GB
EPA / play	+0.15 #2	−0.02 #12	GB
Success rate	48% #4	45% #22	GB

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #9	20.1 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #10	4.78 #5	GB
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	+0.01 #18	CHI
Success rate	46% #12	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.1 #30	7.3 #14	10.4 #22	5.1 #13	9.1 #3	14.2 #2
CHI allowed	3.1 #3	8.1 #26	11.2 #19	5.0 #20	7.9 #26	12.9 #23

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	6.3 #6	6.1 #24	12.4 #10	5.9 #8	7.8 #8	13.6 #7
GB allowed	1.1 #1	6.6 #15	7.7 #1	4.8 #17	7.4 #22	12.1 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.