Chiefs @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff52°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

6-8 · Power #12

final

Final

Tennessee Titans

2-12 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ TEN W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 23–18 TEN

✗ KC (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -11.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total41.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -11.5

8 → TEN

CloseKC -3.5

8 pts toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open41.5

▼ 4

Close37.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -11.5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 8 toward TENmodel KC -12

model KC -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (130 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 34% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -11.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total41.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 26–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 35 points stayed under 37.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 3.7; 36 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Loose	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	6–30	L	O33.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LL–LL	5-8	38%	1-3	4-7
TEN WWLWL	6-8	43%	3-4	6-8

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UUOUU	4-10	29%	6-8
TEN UOUOO	9-5	64%	2-12

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	2-8 20%
TEN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 5–9 TEN TEN leads · 14 games since 2000 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+3.3▲ 2.0#6

TEN−1.8 →−6.6▼ 4.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

TEN

#10

Offense

◀ KC better

#31

#13

Defense

◀ KC better

#26

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.3 #23

65 plays #3

Pace

◀ KC faster

58 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	28.1 #28	KC
Yards / play	5.48 #12	5.83 #27	KC
EPA / play	+0.10 #8	+0.11 #27	KC
Success rate	47% #6	46% #23	KC

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	TEN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #31	19.1 #4	KC
Yards / play	4.33 #31	5.37 #17	KC
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	0.00 #15	KC
Success rate	38% #31	44% #16	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.6 #26	7.5 #11	11.1 #19	5.1 #14	7.1 #12	12.1 #11
TEN allowed	6.2 #27	8.0 #26	14.2 #26	7.6 #32	6.3 #11	13.9 #29

TEN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	4.2 #20	3.2 #31	7.4 #31	2.9 #28	5.8 #25	8.6 #29
KC allowed	4.1 #12	6.0 #11	10.1 #11	4.0 #10	5.1 #5	9.1 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.