Titans @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff51°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

2-11 · Power #31

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

9-4 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -12.5

✓ SF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 16–28 SF

✓ SF (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -12.5

CloseSF -12.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -12.5

no move

CloseSF -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -12.5 · unchangedmodel SF -13.5

model SF -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 52% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -12.5

CloseSF -12.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 12.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 37–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 13.1; 40.6 points a game (usually 45.5). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB vs CIN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	27–18	L	O44.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	BAL vs NYJ 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	23–10	L	U44.5
Close	LAR vs NO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	LAC vs LV 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	31–14	W	O40.5
Close	BUF vs NO 2025 · Week 4 · close	-14.5	31–19	L	O48.5
Close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & total	-14.5	27–19	L	O44.5
Loose	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WWWLW	6-7	46%	3-3	6-7
SF WLWWW	8-5	62%	2-3	6-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	8-5	62%	2-11
SF OOOUU	7-6	54%	9-4

Went over in Q4. Of 221 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SF	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 3–4 SF SF leads · 7 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.8 →−6.6▼ 4.8#32

SF+0.9 →+1.9▲ 1.0#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

TEN

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

SF better ▶

#12

#26

Defense

SF better ▶

#21

−0.4 #26

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #24

58 plays #26

Pace

SF faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	TEN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #31	20.7 #8	SF
Yards / play	4.21 #32	5.53 #22	SF
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	+0.04 #25	SF
Success rate	37% #31	48% #29	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #16	27.5 #29	SF
Yards / play	5.31 #16	5.80 #27	SF
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	+0.09 #27	SF
Success rate	48% #5	45% #19	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	4.3 #19	2.9 #32	7.2 #31	3.1 #27	5.2 #28	8.2 #29
SF allowed	2.9 #2	7.2 #20	10.2 #13	4.8 #19	5.7 #10	10.5 #12

SF scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.6 #15	7.2 #13	11.8 #13	4.8 #17	6.8 #16	11.5 #17
TEN allowed	6.2 #27	7.8 #23	14.0 #23	7.2 #32	6.3 #14	13.5 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.