Jets @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

3-10 · Power #32

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

9-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -13.5

✓ JAX W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 13–27 JAX

✓ JAX (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -9.5

CloseJAX -13.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -9.5

4 → JAX

CloseJAX -13.5

4 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -9.5 · closed JAX -13.5 · moved 4 toward JAXmodel JAX -11.5

model JAX -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -9.5

CloseJAX -13.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 13.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 48–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 40.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 13.2; 36.8 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	DEN vs CAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	28–14	W	O40.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-14	33–25	L	O41
Loose	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Loose	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Loose	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Loose	BAL vs CAR 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-12.5	13–3	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLWWL	7-6	54%	3-2	7-4
JAX LWWWW	8-5	62%	5-1	4-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OUUOO	8-5	62%	3-10
JAX OUOUO	7-6	54%	9-4

Went over in Q2. Of 154 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 7–9 JAX JAX leads · 16 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 15 2024	New York Jets 32 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 25	NYJ -3.5	NYJ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.0 →−4.5▼ 3.5#30

JAX−2.1 →+1.2▲ 3.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

NYJ

Longer bar = better

JAX

#27

Offense

JAX better ▶

#16

#21

Defense

JAX better ▶

−1.2 #32

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.6 #7

59 plays #24

Pace

JAX faster ▶

65 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	NYJ off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #26	20.9 #11	JAX
Yards / play	4.64 #29	5.08 #9	JAX
EPA / play	−0.09 #27	−0.08 #5	JAX
Success rate	42% #24	42% #8	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #9	26.8 #27	JAX
Yards / play	5.07 #23	5.30 #17	NYJ
EPA / play	0.00 #18	+0.11 #28	JAX
Success rate	44% #14	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.8 #23	4.0 #29	7.8 #30	3.0 #28	8.9 #4	11.9 #12
JAX allowed	4.2 #14	5.0 #5	9.2 #5	2.7 #1	8.6 #27	11.3 #15

JAX scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.2 #11	7.6 #9	12.8 #8	5.1 #14	6.5 #18	11.6 #15
NYJ allowed	5.9 #28	9.4 #30	15.3 #30	5.2 #24	6.3 #13	11.5 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.