Colts @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

8-4 · Power #13

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ JAX W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 26–24 JAX

✗ IND (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -2.5

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -2.5

no move

CloseIND -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 5

Close44.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -2.5 · unchangedmodel IND -1

model IND -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (139 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -2.5

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 36–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3; 47.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Close	BUF @ PIT 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	26–7	W	U44.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5
Close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–24	L	U48.5
Close	SEA @ NE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–20	L	O39.5
Loose	GB @ PIT 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–25	W	O45.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWWL	8-4	67%	3-2	5-3
JAX LLWWW	7-5	58%	4-1	3-4

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUOUU	6-6	50%	8-4
JAX OOUOU	6-6	50%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 212 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

IND 27–22 JAX IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 5 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 26	IND -3.5	JAX W
Oct 6 2024	Indianapolis Colts 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	IND W
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W
Sep 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 31 @ Indianapolis Colts 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+2.8▲ 3.6#8

JAX−2.1 →+0.7▲ 2.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

IND

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ IND better

#18

#14

Defense

JAX better ▶

#10

+0.4 #8

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #7

60 plays #23

Pace

JAX faster ▶

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #2	21.1 #12	IND
Yards / play	6.26 #1	5.12 #10	IND
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	−0.07 #6	IND
Success rate	49% #2	43% #11	IND

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #11	20.8 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.03 #26	5.21 #13	IND
EPA / play	−0.01 #18	−0.03 #12	IND
Success rate	44% #15	45% #23	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.6 #3	8.8 #6	15.3 #5	7.1 #3	6.8 #15	13.9 #5
JAX allowed	3.9 #9	5.2 #4	9.1 #4	2.7 #1	8.8 #28	11.5 #17

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.5 #15	7.1 #14	11.6 #14	5.5 #10	6.4 #19	11.9 #13
IND allowed	3.0 #3	6.4 #14	9.4 #8	4.0 #11	7.1 #20	11.1 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.