Steelers @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-6 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

6-6 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

✓ PIT W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–27 BAL

✗ BAL (70%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -7

CloseBAL -5.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -7

1.5 → PIT

CloseBAL -5.5

1.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -7 · closed BAL -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward PITmodel BAL -6.5

model BAL -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 51% (101 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -7

CloseBAL -5.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 5.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 27–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 5.7; 46.9 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5
Close	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	SEA vs NO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	44–13	W	O41.5
Close	ATL vs MIA 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	20–9	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLWLL	5-7	42%	1-4	2-4
BAL WWLLL	4-8	33%	2-5	4-6

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UUUOU	6-6	50%	6-6
BAL UUOUU	7-5	58%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 201 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

PIT 33–26 BAL PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 11 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 14 @ Baltimore Ravens 28	BAL -9.5	BAL W
Dec 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -7.5	BAL W
Nov 17 2024	Baltimore Ravens 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	BAL -3.5	PIT W
Jan 6 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	PIT -3	PIT W
Oct 8 2023	Baltimore Ravens 10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−1.5▼ 2.0#21

BAL+3.6 →+0.8▼ 2.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

PIT

Longer bar = better

BAL

#19

Offense

Even

#17

#19

Defense

Even

#19

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.3 #23

56 plays #32

Pace

Even

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #15	24.4 #21	PIT
Yards / play	5.07 #24	5.40 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #19	+0.01 #21	Even
Success rate	44% #18	44% #13	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #12	24.1 #20	BAL
Yards / play	5.59 #11	5.34 #18	BAL
EPA / play	−0.02 #24	+0.02 #22	Even
Success rate	43% #19	44% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.8 #12	7.9 #9	12.7 #9	2.8 #27	7.9 #9	10.8 #22
BAL allowed	3.8 #8	7.3 #20	11.2 #17	5.9 #27	7.3 #22	13.3 #25

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.8 #22	5.6 #26	9.4 #25	7.7 #1	7.0 #13	14.7 #2
PIT allowed	4.0 #13	5.3 #5	9.3 #6	4.4 #16	10.4 #31	14.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.