Broncos @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sun, Dec 7, 2025, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

10-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-10 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

✓ LV W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 24–16 LV

✓ DEN (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -8.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -7.5

1 → DEN

CloseDEN -8.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -7.5 · closed DEN -8.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -8.5 matches the line

model DEN -8.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 42% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -7.5

CloseDEN -8.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as an 8.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DEN won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 40.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 7.3; 45.3 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	LAC @ TEN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	27–20	L	O44.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Close	NE @ TEN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–13	W	O41.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	JAX @ TEN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	25–3	W	U42.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	GB @ NYG 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–20	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWL	5-7	42%	2-3	2-6
LV WWLLL	4-8	33%	2-4	3-6

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OUUUO	4-8	33%	10-2
LV OUOUO	5-7	42%	2-10

Went over in Q4. Of 152 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LV	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DEN 31–23 LV DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 6 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 7 @ Denver Broncos 10	DEN -9.5	LV W
Nov 24 2024	Denver Broncos 29 @ Las Vegas Raiders 19	DEN -5.5	DEN W
Oct 6 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 18 @ Denver Broncos 34	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Jan 7 2023	Denver Broncos 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	LV -3	LV W
Sep 10 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+0.4 →+2.1▲ 1.7#9

LV−2.0 →−5.4▼ 3.4#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DEN

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

◀ DEN better

#31

Defense

◀ DEN better

#20

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #21

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ DEN faster

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #13	25.7 #26	DEN
Yards / play	5.37 #15	5.19 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.03 #23	DEN
Success rate	43% #23	45% #17	LV

When LV has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	14.9 #31	18.2 #4	DEN
Yards / play	4.51 #30	4.46 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.20 #32	−0.08 #5	DEN
Success rate	40% #30	37% #1	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.4 #18	6.6 #20	11.0 #20	3.3 #24	8.8 #5	12.1 #12
LV allowed	4.8 #21	7.8 #23	12.7 #22	7.0 #30	5.4 #8	12.4 #21

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.3 #28	3.6 #31	6.8 #32	2.3 #31	5.3 #26	7.6 #30
DEN allowed	3.9 #8	5.5 #9	9.4 #8	4.3 #14	4.0 #3	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.