Bills @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff32°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

9-4 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

11-2 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–22 NE

✓ BUF (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseBUF -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -1.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -2.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -1.5 · closed BUF -2.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -2

model BUF -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 53% (142 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (107 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseBUF -2.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 3; 50.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Very close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Very close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Very close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWLWL	6-7	46%	3-3	4-7
NE LWWLW	9-4	69%	4-3	3-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UOUUO	6-7	46%	9-4
NE OOUUO	7-6	54%	11-2

Went over in Q4. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NE	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

BUF 16–40 NE NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2025	New England Patriots 23 @ Buffalo Bills 20	BUF -7.5	NE W
Jan 5 2024	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New England Patriots 23	BUF -3.5	NE W
Dec 22 2024	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -14.5	NE W
Dec 31 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BUF -15.5	NE W
Oct 22 2023	Buffalo Bills 25 @ New England Patriots 29	BUF -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+3.9▲ 1.3#5

NE−2.3 →+1.7▲ 4.0#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#15

Defense

Even

#13

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

NE better ▶

+0.1 #13

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ BUF faster

62 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #6	18.5 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #4	5.24 #16	BUF
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.05 #10	BUF
Success rate	48% #4	45% #20	BUF

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	22.5 #14	NE
Yards / play	5.86 #7	5.43 #20	NE
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	0.00 #15	NE
Success rate	46% #10	43% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.5 #9	7.0 #13	12.5 #10	7.3 #3	9.2 #3	16.5 #1
NE allowed	5.2 #23	4.9 #3	10.1 #11	2.8 #2	5.7 #9	8.5 #6

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.2 #5	10.0 #2	16.2 #3	6.2 #6	4.7 #30	10.8 #20
BUF allowed	4.2 #14	9.2 #28	13.4 #24	2.8 #2	6.4 #15	9.2 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.