Patriots @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff35°F6 mphgusts 15DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

11-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

7-7 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 22–25 BAL

✗ BAL (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -3.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -2.5

1 → BAL

CloseBAL -3.5

1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -2.5 · closed BAL -3.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -2

model BAL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (198 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (50 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -2.5

CloseBAL -3.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 28–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Below normal · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Wins below normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 4.6 against an average line of 3.3; 55.8 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 9 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWLWL	9-5	64%	5-1	3-2
BAL LLLLW	5-9	36%	2-6	5-7

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUUOO	8-6	57%	11-3
BAL OUUOU	8-6	57%	7-7

Went over in Q4. Of 176 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 11–5 BAL NE leads · 16 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →+1.6▲ 3.9#14

BAL+3.6 →+1.1▼ 2.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

◀ NE better

#16

#13

Defense

Even

#15

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−0.3 #23

61 plays #19

Pace

◀ NE faster

57 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #8	22.9 #16	NE
Yards / play	5.96 #6	5.35 #16	NE
EPA / play	+0.12 #4	0.00 #14	NE
Success rate	47% #8	43% #12	Even

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #15	19.7 #6	NE
Yards / play	5.69 #8	5.24 #15	BAL
EPA / play	−0.01 #20	−0.03 #11	NE
Success rate	44% #20	45% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.7 #2	10.0 #2	16.7 #1	5.7 #8	4.9 #30	10.6 #21
BAL allowed	3.8 #8	7.0 #18	10.8 #15	5.8 #27	6.3 #13	12.1 #16

BAL scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	3.5 #27	6.2 #25	9.7 #26	7.3 #2	6.9 #12	14.2 #2
NE allowed	4.8 #20	5.1 #4	9.9 #8	3.6 #6	6.3 #13	9.9 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.