Patriots @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff26°F3 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

12-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

3-12 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

NE -12.5

✓ NE W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 29–17 NYJ

✓ NE (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -9.5

CloseNE -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -9.5

3 → NE

CloseNE -12.5

3 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -9.5 · closed NE -12.5 · moved 3 toward NEmodel NE -8

model NE -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -9.5

CloseNE -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 12.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 11.9; 44.2 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ CLE 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	23–20	L	O41.5
Loose	SEA @ TEN 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.5	30–24	L	O41.5
Loose	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	3–21	L	U38.5
Loose	BUF @ LAC 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13	24–22	L	O44
Loose	KC @ CAR 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-11.5	30–27	L	O42.5
Loose	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Loose	DAL @ WSH 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13	38–10	W	O47
Loose	DEN @ LV 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	24–17	L	O40.5
Loose	DAL @ TEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & situation	-13.5	27–13	W	P40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLWLW	10-5	67%	6-1	6-3
NYJ WWLLL	7-8	47%	3-4	7-6

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	9-6	60%	12-3
NYJ UOOOU	9-6	60%	3-12

Went over in Q3. Of 207 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NYJ	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NE 43–14 NYJ NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 13 2025	New York Jets 14 @ New England Patriots 27	NE -12.5	NE W
Oct 27 2024	New York Jets 22 @ New England Patriots 25	NYJ -7.5	NE W
Sep 19 2024	New England Patriots 3 @ New York Jets 24	NYJ -6.5	NYJ W
Jan 7 2023	New York Jets 17 @ New England Patriots 3	NE -2.5	NYJ W
Sep 24 2023	New England Patriots 15 @ New York Jets 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−2.3 →+2.0▲ 4.3#13

NYJ−1.0 →−5.8▼ 4.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

NYJ

Offense

◀ NE better

#28

#14

Defense

◀ NE better

#23

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−1.2 #32

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ NE faster

60 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #8	28.4 #30	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #3	5.43 #20	NE
EPA / play	+0.13 #4	+0.11 #28	NE
Success rate	47% #6	44% #13	NE

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #28	20.0 #7	NE
Yards / play	4.50 #29	5.29 #15	NE
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	−0.02 #11	NE
Success rate	41% #27	45% #22	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.3 #5	10.0 #2	16.3 #1	5.5 #11	5.5 #27	11.1 #19
NYJ allowed	6.3 #29	9.7 #29	15.9 #31	5.7 #25	6.8 #18	12.5 #21

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.9 #24	3.9 #30	7.8 #30	2.8 #30	8.2 #3	11.0 #20
NE allowed	4.9 #21	4.9 #3	9.9 #9	3.8 #8	6.3 #13	10.1 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.