Dolphins @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff28°F7 mphgusts 18DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

7-9 · Power #28

final

Final

New England Patriots

13-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -14.5

✓ NE W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 16–29 NE

✓ NE (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -10.5

CloseNE -14.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -10.5

4 → NE

CloseNE -14.5

4 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -10.5 · closed NE -14.5 · moved 4 toward NEmodel NE -8

model NE -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -10.5

CloseNE -14.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 14.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 37%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 13.5; 42.2 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX vs NYJ 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	48–20	W	O40.5
Close	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & rest	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	SF vs TB 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	27–14	L	U42
Loose	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-14	20–17	L	U45
Loose	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	20–13	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA –WLLW	8-7	53%	3-4	5-5
NE LWLWW	11-5	69%	4-4	7-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUOU	9-7	56%	7-9
NE UOOOO	10-6	63%	13-3

Went over in Q4. Of 222 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%
NE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIA 25–29 NE NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	New England Patriots 33 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	NE W
Nov 24 2024	New England Patriots 15 @ Miami Dolphins 34	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Oct 6 2024	Miami Dolphins 15 @ New England Patriots 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Sep 17 2023	Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA0.0 →−2.8▼ 2.8#26

NE−2.3 →+2.7▲ 5.0#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

MIA

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

NE better ▶

#25

Defense

NE better ▶

#12

−0.1 #20

Turnovers

NE better ▶

+0.1 #12

56 plays #30

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #22	19.4 #5	NE
Yards / play	5.51 #14	5.27 #13	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #19	−0.03 #11	NE
Success rate	42% #26	45% #19	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #5	24.1 #21	NE
Yards / play	6.06 #2	5.66 #25	NE
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	+0.07 #25	NE
Success rate	48% #4	48% #27	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.1 #10	6.9 #17	12.1 #12	1.7 #32	7.1 #12	8.8 #29
NE allowed	4.6 #19	4.8 #4	9.4 #8	3.6 #7	6.4 #14	9.9 #11

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	6.8 #2	10.7 #2	17.4 #1	5.6 #9	5.2 #29	10.8 #19
MIA allowed	3.9 #9	5.4 #8	9.3 #7	7.3 #32	7.6 #23	14.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.