Commanders @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff34°F6 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-12 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

11-5 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

PHI -3

✓ WSH W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 19–23 PHI

✗ PHI (64%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPHI -7.5

ClosePHI -3

Total42.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -7.5

4.5 → WSH

ClosePHI -3

4.5 pts toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open42.5

▼ 4

Close38.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -7.5 · closed PHI -3 · moved 4.5 toward WSHmodel PHI -13.5

model PHI -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (178 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPHI -7.5

ClosePHI -3

Total42.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like PHI as a 3-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 4 similar games. 41 points went over 38.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 3; 35.5 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	20–13	W	U35.5
Loose	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Loose	CLE vs PIT 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	13–10	W	U34
Loose	CHI vs NO 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	26–14	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWLW	6-10	38%	2-5	4-9
PHI LLWWW	10-6	63%	4-3	8-6

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUOOO	10-6	63%	4-12
PHI UUUOU	6-10	38%	11-5

Went over in Q4. Of 120 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–41.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
PHI	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

WSH 21–35 PHI PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 20 2025	Philadelphia Eagles 29 @ Washington Commanders 18	PHI -7	PHI W
Jan 26 2024	Washington Commanders 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 55	PHI -6.5	PHI W
Dec 22 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 33 @ Washington Commanders 36	PHI -4.5	WSH W
Nov 14 2024	Washington Commanders 18 @ Philadelphia Eagles 26	PHI -4.5	PHI W
Oct 29 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 38 @ Washington Commanders 31	PHI -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.7 →−3.5▼ 4.2#29

PHI+3.2 →+2.6▼ 0.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

WSH

Longer bar = better

PHI

#16

Offense

Even

#17

#29

Defense

PHI better ▶

−0.8 #31

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.3 #7

58 plays #27

Pace

Even

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #25	18.8 #3	PHI
Yards / play	5.55 #12	4.98 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #17	−0.08 #6	PHI
Success rate	46% #11	41% #6	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #18	27.1 #27	PHI
Yards / play	5.26 #19	6.08 #30	PHI
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	+0.16 #31	PHI
Success rate	43% #20	48% #28	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.3 #31	7.6 #10	9.9 #25	4.8 #15	5.7 #25	10.5 #22
PHI allowed	3.9 #10	4.6 #3	8.6 #3	3.2 #5	6.9 #19	10.1 #12

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.4 #3	6.3 #24	12.8 #9	4.4 #18	5.5 #27	9.9 #25
WSH allowed	6.3 #29	7.9 #21	14.3 #27	6.4 #29	5.9 #10	12.3 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.