Browns @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff35°F1 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

4-12 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

6-10 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

CIN -8.5

✓ CLE W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 18–26 CIN

✗ CIN (77%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -7

CloseCIN -8.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -7

1.5 → CIN

CloseCIN -8.5

1.5 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -7 · closed CIN -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward CINmodel CIN -6.5

model CIN -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 45% (67 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (118 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -7

CloseCIN -8.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as an 8.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 20–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 7.4; 48.2 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Close	CIN vs ARI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	37–14	W	U53.5
Loose	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Loose	MIN vs CHI 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	29–22	L	O44
Loose	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5
Loose	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLLWW	7-9	44%	1-6	6-7
CIN WWLWW	8-8	50%	4-4	3-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOUOU	8-8	50%	4-12
CIN UOUOU	9-7	56%	6-10

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 53% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CIN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CLE 22–32 CIN CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Cleveland Browns 16	CIN -5.5	CLE W
Dec 22 2024	Cleveland Browns 6 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	CIN -10.5	CIN W
Oct 20 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 21 @ Cleveland Browns 14	CIN -5.5	CIN W
Jan 7 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -7	CIN W
Sep 10 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 3 @ Cleveland Browns 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−2.1 →−3.5▼ 1.4#28

CIN+0.5 →−2.5▼ 3.0#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CLE

Longer bar = better

CIN

#32

Offense

CIN better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ CLE better

#31

−0.5 #28

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

−0.1 #18

61 plays #19

Pace

Even

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #31	29.5 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #32	6.30 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	+0.14 #30	Even
Success rate	35% #32	49% #31	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #12	22.6 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #18	4.70 #3	CLE
EPA / play	0.00 #21	−0.09 #3	CLE
Success rate	45% #15	39% #3	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	4.3 #20	5.1 #27	9.3 #27	2.7 #29	4.2 #32	6.9 #32
CIN allowed	4.6 #19	9.6 #31	14.1 #27	5.9 #27	9.4 #31	15.4 #32

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.4 #18	7.3 #13	11.6 #15	5.8 #8	7.3 #10	13.1 #8
CLE allowed	5.6 #26	5.2 #6	10.8 #14	5.4 #23	6.4 #17	11.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.