Colts @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

8-8 · Power #13

final

Final

Houston Texans

11-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -9.5

✓ IND W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 18–27 HOU

✓ HOU (79%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -9.5

CloseHOU -9.5

Total40.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -9.5

no move

CloseHOU -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▼ 3

Close37.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -9.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -3.5

model HOU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 50% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -9.5

CloseHOU -9.5

Total40.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 9.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 38–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 37.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 7.9; 40.4 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-9.5	23–14	L	U41.5
Loose	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Loose	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	41–7	W	O37.5
Loose	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	13–16	L	U41.5
Loose	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Loose	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Loose	CHI vs CLE 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–3	W	U38.5
Loose	GB vs CHI 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–21	W	O44.5
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-11	27–16	P	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LLWLL	9-7	56%	4-3	4-3
HOU WWWLW	9-7	56%	5-3	5-4

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UOUOU	8-8	50%	8-8
HOU UUOOU	5-11	31%	11-5

Went over in Q2. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
HOU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

IND 34–15 HOU (1 tied) IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2025	Houston Texans 20 @ Indianapolis Colts 16	IND -3.5	HOU W
Oct 27 2024	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Houston Texans 23	HOU -4.5	IND W
Sep 8 2024	Houston Texans 29 @ Indianapolis Colts 27	HOU -3.5	IND W
Jan 6 2023	Houston Texans 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 19	HOU -1.5	HOU W
Sep 17 2023	Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Houston Texans 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.8 →+1.3▲ 2.1#15

HOU+0.6 →+4.5▲ 3.9#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

IND

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ IND better

#23

#18

Defense

HOU better ▶

+0.1 #11

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.9 #2

60 plays #22

Pace

HOU faster ▶

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	IND off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #7	16.6 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.79 #7	4.73 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.14 #1	HOU
Success rate	47% #6	38% #2	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	HOU off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #16	23.4 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #25	5.34 #16	IND
EPA / play	−0.01 #24	+0.01 #15	IND
Success rate	41% #28	46% #23	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.2 #6	8.4 #4	14.6 #5	6.1 #7	6.1 #20	12.3 #11
HOU allowed	3.1 #3	4.4 #2	7.6 #2	5.5 #24	3.5 #2	9.0 #4

HOU scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.8 #15	6.9 #19	11.6 #15	3.4 #26	7.8 #6	11.3 #14
IND allowed	4.2 #14	6.9 #16	11.1 #17	4.4 #16	7.6 #25	12.1 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.