Jaguars @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sun, Dec 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

11-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

8-7 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

JAX -4.5

✓ JAX W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 27–23 IND

✓ JAX (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -5.5

CloseJAX -4.5

Total44.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -5.5

1 → IND

CloseJAX -4.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open44.5

▲ 4

Close48.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -5.5 · closed JAX -4.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel IND -1.5

model IND -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -5.5

CloseJAX -4.5

Total44.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 4.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 23–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 3.6; 51 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF @ IND 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	48–27	W	O46.5
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	SEA @ WSH 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-2.5	38–14	W	O47.5
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Close	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	DET @ HOU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	26–23	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWWWW	10-5	67%	4-3	5-1
IND WLLWL	9-6	60%	4-3	4-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OUOOO	9-6	60%	11-4
IND UUOUO	8-7	53%	8-7

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
IND	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

JAX 22–27 IND IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Indianapolis Colts 19 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 36	IND -2.5	JAX W
Jan 5 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 26	IND -3.5	JAX W
Oct 6 2024	Indianapolis Colts 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	IND W
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W
Sep 10 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 31 @ Indianapolis Colts 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX−2.1 →+2.0▲ 4.1#12

IND−0.8 →+1.9▲ 2.7#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

JAX

Longer bar = better

IND

#15

Offense

IND better ▶

Defense

◀ JAX better

#18

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

+0.1 #13

64 plays #5

Pace

◀ JAX faster

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #7	23.4 #18	JAX
Yards / play	5.22 #21	5.33 #16	IND
EPA / play	+0.02 #15	+0.01 #15	Even
Success rate	44% #15	46% #23	JAX

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #6	20.8 #11	IND
Yards / play	5.92 #7	5.13 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	−0.09 #4	Even
Success rate	48% #5	42% #10	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.9 #6	8.4 #7	14.3 #7	6.0 #7	6.3 #19	12.3 #12
IND allowed	4.5 #16	6.9 #16	11.4 #19	4.1 #11	7.7 #25	11.8 #15

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	6.4 #2	8.5 #6	14.9 #6	6.1 #6	6.5 #16	12.6 #10
JAX allowed	4.1 #13	5.2 #6	9.3 #6	3.0 #4	8.1 #27	11.1 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.