Texans @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff60°F0 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

10-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

11-4 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

LAC -1.5

✓ HOU W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 20–21 LAC

✗ LAC (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

3 → LAC

CloseLAC -1.5

3 pts toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open39.5

▲ 1

Close40.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed LAC -1.5 · moved 3 toward LACmodel HOU -1.5

model HOU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 51% (107 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 1.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 20–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 2.2; 41.6 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	15–18	L	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	16–15	L	U43.5
Close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-2.5	36–29	W	O38.5
Close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWWL	8-7	53%	3-4	3-3
LAC LWWWW	9-6	60%	5-2	5-6

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUOO	5-10	33%	10-5
LAC UOUUO	7-8	47%	11-4

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LAC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 5–6 LAC LAC leads · 11 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 11 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 12 @ Houston Texans 32	LAC -2.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.6 →+4.4▲ 3.8#3

LAC+0.5 →+2.1▲ 1.6#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

HOU

Longer bar = better

LAC

#23

Offense

LAC better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ HOU better

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.2 #9

64 plays #8

Pace

Even

64 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	HOU off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #19	20.1 #8	LAC
Yards / play	5.05 #25	5.02 #9	LAC
EPA / play	0.00 #20	−0.07 #8	LAC
Success rate	41% #28	42% #9	LAC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	LAC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #17	16.6 #1	HOU
Yards / play	5.36 #17	4.74 #4	HOU
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	−0.13 #1	HOU
Success rate	45% #12	39% #2	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.1 #21	7.3 #14	11.5 #16	3.5 #24	8.1 #5	11.6 #15
LAC allowed	4.3 #16	6.3 #13	10.5 #12	4.4 #13	5.1 #5	9.5 #7

LAC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.5 #8	6.5 #20	11.9 #12	5.4 #12	5.7 #25	11.1 #18
HOU allowed	3.3 #4	4.5 #2	7.9 #2	5.4 #23	3.3 #2	8.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.