49ers @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (NFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Sun, Jan 11, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTNFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff40°F14 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

12-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

11-6 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

✓ SF W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 18–23 PHI

✗ PHI (67%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPHI -3

ClosePHI -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -3

2.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -5.5

2.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -3 · closed PHI -5.5 · moved 2.5 toward PHImodel SF -0.5

model SF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 49% (111 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 22% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPHI -3

ClosePHI -5.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 5.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 23–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 4.9; 42.8 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Very close	PHI vs GB 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	22–10	W	U45.5
Close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	13–16	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWWLL	10-7	59%	7-2	2-4
PHI LWWWL	10-7	59%	4-4	8-7

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOOOU	10-7	59%	12-5
PHI UUOUO	7-10	41%	11-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 52% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
PHI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 7–9 PHI PHI leads · 16 games since 2001 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 3 2023	San Francisco 49ers 42 @ Philadelphia Eagles 19	SF -3	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+2.2▲ 1.3#10

PHI+3.2 →+2.3▼ 0.9#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ SF better

#19

#23

Defense

PHI better ▶

−0.4 #26

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.4 #7

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ SF faster

59 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #10	19.1 #5	PHI
Yards / play	5.52 #11	4.95 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #4	42% #9	SF

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #19	21.8 #13	SF
Yards / play	5.24 #19	5.63 #24	PHI
EPA / play	+0.03 #16	+0.07 #24	PHI
Success rate	43% #20	48% #29	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.6 #7	7.7 #8	13.3 #8	5.5 #9	6.8 #14	12.2 #11
PHI allowed	3.7 #6	4.9 #3	8.6 #4	3.0 #3	7.3 #22	10.3 #12

PHI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.1 #5	6.4 #23	12.4 #9	4.7 #16	5.2 #29	9.9 #26
SF allowed	4.1 #13	7.1 #18	11.2 #17	4.3 #15	6.4 #13	10.6 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.