Bills @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2025)

Sun, Jan 11, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff62°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

12-5 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

13-4 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

✓ BUF W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 23–24 JAX

✗ JAX (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -1.5

3 → JAX

CloseJAX -1.5

3 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -1.5 · closed JAX -1.5 · moved 3 toward JAXmodel BUF -1.5

model BUF -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 50% (109 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -1.5

CloseJAX -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.5 against an average line of 3; 45.5 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Very close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & total	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWLLW	8-9	47%	4-4	2-0
JAX WWWWW	12-5	71%	7-1	7-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOOUO	9-8	53%	12-5
JAX OOOUO	10-7	59%	13-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 45% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
JAX	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUF 10–8 JAX BUF leads · 18 games since 2001 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Buffalo Bills 47	BUF -4.5	BUF W
Oct 8 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 25 @ Buffalo Bills 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+4.2▲ 1.6#4

JAX−2.1 →+2.7▲ 4.8#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

BUF

Longer bar = better

JAX

Offense

◀ BUF better

#13

Defense

JAX better ▶

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #3

64 plays #10

Pace

JAX faster ▶

64 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #5	19.8 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #5	4.98 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.11 #3	Even
Success rate	49% #2	41% #6	Even

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #6	21.5 #12	JAX
Yards / play	5.25 #18	5.25 #15	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #14	−0.02 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #15	42% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.0 #10	7.4 #12	12.4 #10	7.1 #2	8.9 #2	15.9 #1
JAX allowed	4.2 #14	5.0 #4	9.2 #6	3.1 #4	7.2 #21	10.2 #12

JAX scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	5.6 #7	9.2 #4	14.9 #4	6.1 #8	6.4 #17	12.4 #9
BUF allowed	4.8 #21	8.2 #23	13.0 #23	2.5 #1	5.9 #10	8.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.