Bills @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Divisional Playoffs, 2025)

Sat, Jan 17, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTAFC Divisional Playoffs · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff35°F5 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

13-5 · Power #4

final

Final

Denver Broncos

14-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

✓ DEN W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 23–24 DEN

✓ DEN (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -1.5

no move

CloseDEN -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -1.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -2.5

model BUF -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 50% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -1.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 33–30; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2.6; 43.7 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Close	GB vs PHI 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-1.5	7–10	L	U44.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLLWW	9-9	50%	5-4	3-0
DEN LWLLW	7-10	41%	5-4	3-9

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOUOU	9-9	50%	13-5
DEN OOOUU	7-10	41%	14-3

Went over in Q4. Of 223 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DEN	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUF 6–6 DEN Series tied · 12 games since 2002 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 12 2024	Denver Broncos 7 @ Buffalo Bills 31	BUF -7.5	BUF W
Nov 13 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Buffalo Bills 22	BUF -7.5	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.6 →+4.3▲ 1.7#4

DEN+0.4 →+2.6▲ 2.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotWC

BUF

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ BUF better

#14

#13

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.2 #21

64 plays #9

Pace

DEN faster ▶

64 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #4	18.3 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #5	4.46 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #2	37% #1	Even

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #14	21.6 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #15	5.32 #16	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.01 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #16	43% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.9 #11	7.3 #11	12.2 #10	6.8 #3	9.2 #2	16.0 #1
DEN allowed	3.8 #6	5.8 #10	9.6 #9	4.4 #17	3.9 #3	8.4 #2

DEN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	4.3 #21	6.6 #20	10.9 #19	4.5 #18	7.7 #9	12.2 #12
BUF allowed	4.6 #20	8.1 #23	12.7 #21	2.6 #1	6.4 #15	8.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.