Cardinals @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game

Weather at kickoff58°F4 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-13 · Power #25

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

11-5 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -14.5

✓ LAR W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 18–32 LAR

✓ LAR (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -8.5

CloseLAR -14.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -8.5

6 → LAR

CloseLAR -14.5

6 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open45.5

▲ 4

Close49.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -8.5 · closed LAR -14.5 · moved 6 toward LARmodel LAR -11.5

model LAR -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -8.5

CloseLAR -14.5

Total45.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 14.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 37%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 13.7; 48.3 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-13	45–10	W	O48
Loose	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & season form	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	SF vs SEA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14	28–16	L	U45.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	DET vs NYG 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14.5	34–27	L	O50.5
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	MIA vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-14	30–15	W	U47.5
Loose	MIA vs CAR 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Loose	KC vs LV 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	31–0	W	U45.5
Loose	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14	20–17	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WLLLL	6-10	38%	5-3	5-8
LAR LWWWL	11-5	69%	5-2	10-4

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOOUU	9-7	56%	3-13
LAR OOOOO	9-7	56%	11-5

Went over in Q4. Of 126 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
LAR	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

ARI 21–29 LAR LAR leads · 50 games since 2002 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Los Angeles Rams 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 17	LAR -9.5	LAR W
Dec 28 2024	Arizona Cardinals 9 @ Los Angeles Rams 13	LAR -6.5	ARI W
Sep 15 2024	Los Angeles Rams 10 @ Arizona Cardinals 41	ARI -1.5	ARI W
Nov 26 2023	Los Angeles Rams 37 @ Arizona Cardinals 14	LAR -3	LAR W
Oct 15 2023	Arizona Cardinals 9 @ Los Angeles Rams 26	LAR -7.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI+0.1 →−2.4▼ 2.5#22

LAR+0.2 →+6.0▲ 5.8#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

ARI

Longer bar = better

LAR

#23

Offense

LAR better ▶

#27

Defense

LAR better ▶

#10

0.0 #14

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

+0.6 #5

64 plays #8

Pace

Even

63 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	ARI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #23	20.4 #8	LAR
Yards / play	5.11 #23	5.15 #11	LAR
EPA / play	−0.02 #25	−0.07 #9	LAR
Success rate	43% #22	42% #10	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #1	28.2 #29	LAR
Yards / play	6.23 #1	5.58 #23	LAR
EPA / play	+0.14 #2	+0.08 #26	LAR
Success rate	52% #1	48% #29	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.6 #18	6.5 #23	11.1 #20	4.3 #19	5.5 #27	9.8 #26
LAR allowed	4.3 #15	6.4 #15	10.7 #13	2.9 #3	6.1 #11	9.0 #4

LAR scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.9 #1	8.2 #6	15.1 #3	7.3 #1	7.3 #10	14.6 #2
ARI allowed	6.1 #28	8.6 #26	14.7 #29	5.3 #21	8.1 #28	13.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.