Chiefs @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2025)

Sun, Jan 4, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

6-10 · Power #12

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-14 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ LV W

Total

35.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 21–16 LV

✗ KC (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5.5

2 → LV

CloseKC -3.5

2 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open35.5

no move

Close35.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5.5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 2 toward LVmodel KC -13.5

model KC -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (141 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 14–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 8 similar games. 26 points stayed under 35.5, as in 6 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 4.8; 32 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU @ TEN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	16–13	L	U37.5
Loose	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & spread	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Loose	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	PIT @ CLE 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar total & season form	-3.5	6–13	L	U34.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Loose	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	JAX @ TEN 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-6	25–3	W	U42.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC –LLLW	6-9	40%	1-4	4-8
LV LWLWL	6-10	38%	3-5	5-8

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUU	4-12	25%	6-10
LV OOUOO	8-8	50%	2-14

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 47% of games with totals 32.5–38.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	1-9 10%
LV	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

KC 36–19 LV KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 0 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -13.5	KC W
Nov 29 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -13.5	LV W
Oct 27 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	KC -8.5	LV W
Dec 25 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 14	KC -11	LV W
Nov 26 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	KC -9	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+1.3 →+1.9▲ 0.6#13

LV−2.0 →−6.4▼ 4.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ KC better

#31

#14

Defense

◀ KC better

#21

−0.1 #16

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.4 #27

62 plays #14

Pace

◀ KC faster

55 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #20	26.3 #25	KC
Yards / play	5.29 #17	5.18 #12	LV
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	+0.06 #22	KC
Success rate	46% #10	46% #25	KC

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #32	19.6 #6	KC
Yards / play	4.47 #30	5.29 #15	KC
EPA / play	−0.20 #32	+0.01 #17	KC
Success rate	38% #30	45% #17	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.1 #28	7.4 #12	10.5 #23	4.8 #15	6.4 #16	11.2 #16
LV allowed	5.4 #24	7.9 #21	13.3 #23	6.9 #30	5.6 #8	12.5 #23

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	2.9 #30	3.3 #32	6.2 #32	2.6 #31	5.1 #30	7.6 #31
KC allowed	3.8 #5	6.0 #10	9.8 #9	4.4 #16	5.5 #7	9.9 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.