Vikings @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff45°F11 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

6-8 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

2-12 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 23–20 NYG

✓ MIN (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -1.5

1 → MIN

CloseMIN -2.5

1 pt toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -1.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 1 toward MINmodel NYG -1

model NYG -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (146 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (110 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -1.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 16–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3; 38.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	TEN @ JAX 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	13–20	L	U38.5
Close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LLLWW	6-8	43%	3-3	3-3
NYG WWWLL	7-7	50%	3-3	7-6

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUUUO	8-6	57%	6-8
NYG UOOOO	9-5	64%	2-12

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NYG	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 12–7 NYG MIN leads · 19 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Minnesota Vikings 28 @ New York Giants 6	NYG -2.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+1.0 →−1.0▼ 2.0#19

NYG−2.6 →−3.0▼ 0.4#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

MIN

Longer bar = better

NYG

#26

Offense

NYG better ▶

#21

#10

Defense

◀ MIN better

#29

−0.9 #31

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #28

56 plays #30

Pace

NYG faster ▶

65 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #24	28.3 #29	MIN
Yards / play	5.01 #27	6.03 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	+0.13 #29	Even
Success rate	43% #23	48% #28	MIN

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	NYG off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #22	21.9 #13	MIN
Yards / play	5.31 #18	5.00 #7	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #16	−0.04 #9	MIN
Success rate	42% #27	43% #10	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.9 #12	4.8 #28	9.6 #26	4.6 #18	6.4 #20	11.0 #19
NYG allowed	4.6 #18	9.9 #29	14.5 #28	2.9 #3	10.2 #31	13.1 #24

NYG scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	5.1 #10	6.1 #24	11.1 #18	3.4 #25	6.9 #14	10.3 #26
MIN allowed	4.6 #19	6.4 #14	11.0 #19	5.1 #21	5.8 #8	10.9 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.