Steelers @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2025)

Sun, Dec 21, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-6 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

8-6 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

DET -7.5

✓ PIT W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–29 DET

✗ DET (76%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -6.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -6.5

1 → DET

CloseDET -7.5

1 pt toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open49.5

▲ 3

Close52.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -6.5 · closed DET -7.5 · moved 1 toward DETmodel DET -9.5

model DET -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 51% (102 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 36% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDET -6.5

CloseDET -7.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 7.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 29–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 7.2; 53.3 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	LAR vs TB 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	DET vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	31–45	L	O55.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	BUF vs DEN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U48.5
Close	BAL vs DEN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	41–10	W	O46.5
Loose	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Loose	DAL vs GB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	32–48	L	O52
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLLWW	7-7	50%	2-4	3-4
DET LL–WL	7-6	54%	4-2	6-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOUOU	7-7	50%	8-6
DET UOOOO	9-5	64%	8-6

Went over in Q4. Of 37 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–55.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
DET	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 6–0 DET (1 tied) PIT leads · 7 games since 2001 · PIT has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT+0.5 →−1.1▼ 1.6#20

DET+2.8 →+4.1▲ 1.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

PIT

Longer bar = better

DET

#16

Offense

DET better ▶

#19

Defense

Even

#16

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #6

56 plays #31

Pace

DET faster ▶

61 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	24.6 #23	PIT
Yards / play	5.17 #21	5.39 #19	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #14	−0.01 #14	Even
Success rate	44% #15	42% #9	DET

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #1	23.3 #18	DET
Yards / play	6.20 #2	5.38 #18	DET
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	+0.02 #21	DET
Success rate	46% #10	44% #17	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	4.6 #16	8.0 #8	12.6 #10	4.1 #23	7.3 #10	11.4 #17
DET allowed	5.7 #25	6.7 #16	12.4 #20	5.5 #23	6.7 #18	12.2 #17

DET scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	5.9 #7	10.0 #2	15.9 #3	4.9 #16	9.3 #1	14.1 #3
PIT allowed	3.6 #6	5.1 #6	8.8 #4	4.3 #12	10.2 #32	14.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.