Panthers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sun, Dec 14, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

7-6 · Power #26

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

3-10 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

✓ NO W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 22–19 NO

✗ CAR (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAR -2.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAR -2.5

no move

CloseCAR -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAR -2.5 · unchangedmodel CAR -1

model CAR -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAR -2.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAR as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 2.4; 46.8 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ JAX 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	32–25	W	O41.5
Close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	24–27	L	O38.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Close	JAX @ LV 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	30–29	L	O44.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WLWLW	8-5	62%	4-3	0-1
NO LWL–W	4-8	33%	1-5	3-7

Venue/role: CAR away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UUOUO	7-6	54%	7-6
NO UUUUO	4-9	31%	3-10

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NO	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CAR 24–31 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2025	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Carolina Panthers 7	CAR -5.5	NO W
Nov 3 2024	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Carolina Panthers 23	NO -7.5	CAR W
Sep 8 2024	Carolina Panthers 10 @ New Orleans Saints 47	NO -3.5	NO W
Dec 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28	NO -5.5	NO W
Sep 18 2023	New Orleans Saints 20 @ Carolina Panthers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−3.5 →−3.0▲ 0.5#26

NO−1.6 →−3.8▼ 2.2#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CAR

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

◀ CAR better

#28

#21

Defense

NO better ▶

#15

0.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−0.4 #25

62 plays #16

Pace

NO faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #28	24.2 #20	NO
Yards / play	5.06 #24	5.09 #10	NO
EPA / play	−0.03 #25	−0.02 #12	NO
Success rate	44% #15	44% #18	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	22.8 #16	CAR
Yards / play	4.67 #28	5.66 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #28	+0.08 #26	Even
Success rate	42% #26	44% #16	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	4.1 #20	3.8 #30	7.8 #30	4.4 #20	6.5 #19	10.9 #19
NO allowed	7.6 #31	9.1 #27	16.7 #32	3.8 #9	3.8 #2	7.5 #1

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	2.0 #32	6.4 #22	8.4 #28	3.2 #26	4.3 #32	7.5 #30
CAR allowed	4.1 #13	10.7 #32	14.8 #29	3.8 #9	4.3 #3	8.1 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.