Patriots @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-1 · Power #7

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -3

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 20–23 JAX

✓ JAX (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -3

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJAX -1.5

1.5 → JAX

CloseJAX -3

1.5 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -1.5 · closed JAX -3 · moved 1.5 toward JAXmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (190 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJAX -1.5

CloseJAX -3

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.7 against an average line of 3.2; 46.9 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs TB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	35–38	L	O45.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	NE vs LAC 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	16–3	W	U45.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE PW	1-0-1	100%	0-0-1	0-0-1
JAX WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UU	0-2	0%	1-1
JAX OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%
JAX	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 9–3 JAX NE leads · 12 games since 2003 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	New England Patriots 16 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 32	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.6▲ 0.8#6

JAX+1.4 →+1.7▲ 0.3#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

JAX

#25

Offense

JAX better ▶

Defense

◀ NE better

#19

−1.5 #29

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.0 #7

60 plays #18

Pace

◀ NE faster

56 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	NE off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #29	15.0 #6	JAX
Yards / play	5.03 #23	6.15 #29	NE
EPA / play	−0.09 #25	−0.02 #15	JAX
Success rate	42% #23	47% #24	Even

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #15	8.0 #1	NE
Yards / play	5.66 #9	4.52 #3	NE
EPA / play	+0.14 #8	−0.18 #5	Even
Success rate	52% #3	39% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

NE scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.0	3.5	6.5
JAX allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	3.0	10.5	13.5

JAX scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	7.0	10.0	17.0	6.5	0.0	6.5
NE allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	5.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.