Jaguars @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-0 · Power #6

final

Final

Denver Broncos

0-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

✓ DEN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–23 DEN

✓ DEN (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -2.5

no move

CloseDEN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -2.5 · unchangedmodel JAX -2.5

model JAX -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (216 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEN -2.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like DEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 33 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 2.4; 37 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KC vs DEN 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–10	W	U42.5
Loose	SEA vs NE 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	13–10	P	U44.5
Loose	IND vs MIA 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	33–8	W	U47.5
Loose	KC vs BAL 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	27–20	W	O45.5
Loose	NE vs LV 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX W	1-0	100%	—	—
DEN L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX O	1-0	100%	1-0
DEN U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%
DEN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 7–6 DEN JAX leads · 13 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 21 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 34 @ Denver Broncos 20	DEN -3.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+2.5▲ 1.1#4

DEN+1.2 →−0.4▼ 1.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

JAX

Longer bar = better

DEN

Offense

◀ JAX better

#31

#12

Defense

◀ JAX better

#20

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−1.0 #24

56 plays #22

Pace

◀ JAX faster

47 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #6	31.0 #23	JAX
Yards / play	6.43 #5	5.85 #22	JAX
EPA / play	+0.34 #4	+0.16 #22	JAX
Success rate	60% #1	42% #13	JAX

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	DEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #30	10.0 #3	JAX
Yards / play	3.74 #32	5.55 #18	JAX
EPA / play	−0.34 #32	−0.18 #9	JAX
Success rate	37% #28	45% #17	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.