Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game
Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #23
26
▲ winner
Final
@
0-1 · Power #25
14
final
Closing spread
LAC -6.5
✓ LV W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 40 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 18–24 LAC
✗ LAC (72%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -8.5
CloseLAC -6.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
2 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders
Total
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAC -8.5 · closed LAC -6.5 · moved 2 toward LVmodel LAC -4.5
Opened 42.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 upmodel 42
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 51% (138 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 32% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -8.5
CloseLAC -6.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for LAC as a 6.5-point home favorite against LV. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Las Vegas Raiders
2 pts (LAC -8.5 → LAC -6.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LV−3.0 →−2.2▲ 0.8#28
LAC+0.6 →−0.7▼ 1.3#21
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

LV
Longer bar = better
LAC
#20
Offense
◀ LV better
#24
#7
Defense
◀ LV better
#20
0.0 #15
Turnovers
◀ LV better
−2.0 #30
67 plays #10
Pace
◀ LV faster
51 plays #27
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When LV has the ball
Even matchup
LV offLAC defEdge
Points / game 27.0 #15 26.0 #17 Even
Yards / play 4.33 #26 5.46 #17 LAC
EPA / play −0.04 #20 +0.14 #21 Even
Success rate 42% #20 49% #26 LV
When LAC has the ball
Advantage: LV defense
LAC offLV defEdge
Points / game 14.0 #24 13.0 #7 LV
Yards / play 5.25 #19 5.18 #13 LV
EPA / play −0.24 #28 −0.24 #7 LV
Success rate 39% #25 34% #2 LV

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
LAC +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 2 mph
gusts 4 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LV7d
LAC7d
Even
Tempo
Average 118 plays
slowavg 122fast