Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game
Closing spread
LAC -6.5
✓ LV W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 40 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 18–24 LAC
✗ LAC (72%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -8.5
CloseLAC -6.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAC -8.5
2 → LV
CloseLAC -6.5
2 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders
Total
Open42.5
▲ 1
Close43.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAC -8.5 · closed LAC -6.5 · moved 2 toward LVmodel LAC -4.5
model LAC -4.5
Opened 42.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 upmodel 42
model 42
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 51% (138 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 32% (44 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenLAC -8.5
CloseLAC -6.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
LAC as a 6.5-point home favorite against LV. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Las Vegas Raiders ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Las Vegas Raiders
2 pts (LAC -8.5 → LAC -6.5), through the key number 7. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | |
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
LV 22–33 LAC
LAC leads · 55 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 2025 | Las Vegas Raiders 14 @ Los Angeles Chargers 31 | LAC -9.5 | LAC W |
| Sep 15 2025 | Los Angeles Chargers 20 @ Las Vegas Raiders 9 | LAC -3.5 | LAC W |
| Jan 5 2024 | Los Angeles Chargers 34 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20 | LAC -6.5 | LAC W |
| Sep 8 2024 | Las Vegas Raiders 10 @ Los Angeles Chargers 22 | LAC -3 | LAC W |
| Dec 14 2023 | Los Angeles Chargers 21 @ Las Vegas Raiders 63 | LV -3 | LV W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LV−3.0 →−2.2▲ 0.8#28
LAC+0.6 →−0.7▼ 1.3#21
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#20
Offense
◀ LV better#24
#7
Defense
◀ LV better#20
0.0 #15
Turnovers
◀ LV better−2.0 #30
67 plays #10
Pace
◀ LV faster51 plays #27
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| LV off | LAC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 27.0 #15 | 26.0 #17 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.33 #26 | 5.46 #17 | LAC |
| EPA / play | −0.04 #20 | +0.14 #21 | Even |
| Success rate | 42% #20 | 49% #26 | LV |
| LAC off | LV def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.0 #24 | 13.0 #7 | LV |
| Yards / play | 5.25 #19 | 5.18 #13 | LV |
| EPA / play | −0.24 #28 | −0.24 #7 | LV |
| Success rate | 39% #25 | 34% #2 | LV |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 2 mph
gusts 4 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LV7d
LAC7d
Even
Tempo
Average 118 plays
slowavg 122fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

