Chargers @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff67°F13 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

0-2 · Power #25

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

2-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -7

✓ BUF W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 19–26 BUF

✓ BUF (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -7

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -2.5

4.5 → BUF

CloseBUF -7

4.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -2.5 · closed BUF -7 · moved 4.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -7.5

model BUF -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 51% (108 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (52 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -2.5

CloseBUF -7

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like BUF as a 7-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 24–16; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 40 points stayed under 50.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 6.5; 54 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LL	0-2	0%	—	—
BUF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UU	0-2	0%	0-2
BUF OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 49% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 7–6 BUF LAC leads · 13 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 23 2023	Buffalo Bills 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 22	BUF -13	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−1.6▼ 2.2#23

BUF+2.1 →+3.3▲ 1.2#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LAC

Longer bar = better

BUF

#28

Offense

BUF better ▶

#18

Defense

◀ LAC better

#25

−2.0 #32

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.0 #11

57 plays #25

Pace

BUF faster ▶

61 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #30	31.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #19	5.45 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.25 #31	+0.14 #26	BUF
Success rate	37% #30	47% #25	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #1	26.0 #22	BUF
Yards / play	7.07 #1	5.29 #18	BUF
EPA / play	+0.34 #1	+0.04 #17	BUF
Success rate	50% #5	43% #14	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

LAC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	7.0	0.0	7.0
BUF allowed	3.5	12.0	15.5	3.5	12.0	15.5

BUF scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	8.5	17.0	25.5	5.0	8.0	13.0
LAC allowed	3.5	8.0	11.5	5.0	9.5	14.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.