Rams @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff84°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

1-1 · Power #5

final

Final

Denver Broncos

1-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

✓ DEN W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 20–21 DEN

✓ DEN (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -2.5

4 → DEN

CloseDEN -1.5

4 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -2.5 · closed DEN -1.5 · moved 4 toward DENmodel LAR -2

model LAR -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 52% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 57% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -2.5

CloseDEN -1.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 30–26; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 2.1; 41.8 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	NYJ vs SEA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	21–26	L	O41.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	NO vs ATL 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	10–24	L	U40.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LW	1-1	50%	—	—
DEN LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UU	0-2	0%	1-1
DEN UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 250 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
DEN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 6–2 DEN LAR leads · 8 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.0–#4

DEN+1.2 →+0.4▼ 0.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LAR

Longer bar = better

DEN

#13

Offense

◀ LAR better

#21

Defense

◀ LAR better

#17

−1.0 #27

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

−0.5 #23

59 plays #25

Pace

◀ LAR faster

53 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #25	22.0 #15	DEN
Yards / play	6.59 #3	5.41 #19	LAR
EPA / play	+0.01 #16	+0.07 #22	LAR
Success rate	49% #8	43% #13	LAR

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	DEN off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #28	16.5 #3	LAR
Yards / play	5.36 #14	4.71 #3	LAR
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	−0.10 #5	LAR
Success rate	43% #17	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 28 teams

LAR scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.5	3.5	7.0
DEN allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	6.5	3.5	10.0

DEN scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.0	7.0	10.0
LAR allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	5.0	5.0	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.